MET - Soaring Safari's

The SAWB makes it a high to the south of the country for the next week - i see a low sitting of the west coast - so, at least it will be interesting.

The forecasts here made rely in main on a sounding on the ridges to the NE of Worcester airfield (at S33.5 E19.5) at 14h00 local time. All heights are MSL in feet. Winds are given from the surface up in 5000ft increments. The forecasts run through to Wednesday24, with an increasing error probability (they forecasted no bad weather, excessive wind or rain for the just finished Gauteng Regionals) Conversion factors: 1m/s = 0,5knots and 2kph = 1 knot

I would expect the first three days to be front ridge days (ie Renosterhoek - Huguenot Tunnel) and perhaps George on Tuesday. Sunday will be a good wave day.

Saturday 20 October
Surface wind to 5000ft - 10kphNWN; 40 NWN at 10000ft, 60 15000 and 20000ft
Blue, wave, but only above 21000ft.
Max temp 33,5 dewpoint 6,3, trigger at 33,2C
Expect 1,5 to 1,8m/s to 6700ft
CAUTION: Surface turbulence and again above 8500ft

Sunday 21 October
Surface wind 10W, 20WNW at 5000ft, 40 NW at 10000ft, 50 NW at 15000ft; 60WNW at 20000ft
Blue, WAVE: 6700ft 2,3m/s, 8400ft 2,5m/s, 12300ft 2,3m/s, 14800ft, 1,7m/s, 16700ft 1,6m/s, 19000ft 2,0m/s and 21800ft 2,2m/s
AN EXCELLENT WAVE DAY
Max temp 29,6 dewpoint 9,3C trigger 27,8
Expect 1,2 - 1,7m/s to 6600ft

Monday 22 October
Surface wind W10, NW 10 at 5000ft, NW30 10000ft - 15000ft WNW 50 at 20000ft
Blue, wave above 10300ft at 0,7m/s, and higher
Max temp 27,6, dewpoint 8,3, trigger at 25,5
Expect 1,3m/s - 1,8m/s to 6700ft

Tuesday 23 October
Surface wind NW20, NW 30 at 5000ft, NW 40 at 10000ft, NW60 at 15000ft, NW80 at 20000ft
Wave at 8300ft 2,3m/s at 18900ft at 2,6m/s and higher
Blue
Max 26,3m/s, dewpoint 8,0C trigger at 24,8C
Expect 1,2 - 1,6m/s to 6500ft

Wednesday 24 October
Surface wind W20, 5000ft W20, 10000ft NW40, 15000ft NW50, 20000ft NW70
3/8 cu / stratus with bases at 2500ft - tops at 6600ft
Wave above 10000 at 2,5 ms, 16500ft 2,5 m/s 18900ft at 3.1ms, 24400ft at 2.3ms
Thermic blue
Max 23,7C dewpoint 10,6
Expect 1,4 to 1,8ms to 6800ft

This is about as far as i can take it at the moment.

EY