The only constant is change!
For Saturday 20 October
Surface wind NW10, 5000ft NNW20, 10000ft NNW 40, 15000ft NW50, 20000ft NW60
Surface turbulence - THIS INCLUDES ALL SURFACES
Wave at 8500ft at 1.1ms and again at 19200ft at 1.7ms
Max 34!!!! dewpoint 6.9 trigger 32.7!!
Blue
Expect 1.6 -2.0ms to 7200ft
For Sunday 21 October
Surface wind W20, 5000ft WNW20, 10000ft NW40, 15000ft Nw50, 20000ft NW 50
Wave at 10300ft at 2.1ms, 12600ft at 2.6 and 22000ft at 1.7ms
Blue
Max 28.9 dewpoint 8.6, trigger at 27
Expect 1.3 - 1.7ms to 6700ft
For Monday 22 October
Surface wind w10, 5000FT nw20, 10000 ft NW40, 15000ft NW50 and 20000ft NW10!!
Wave
8400ft 2.1ms 10200ft 2.6ms 12200 1.5ms 21600ft 1.2
Blue
Max 27.2, dewpoint 7.8, trigger 25.2
Expect 1.1 - 1.5ms to 6000ft
Monday is turning into the better wave day - i still expect the first three days to be front ridge days. With some cunimbs inland
EY
Friday, 19 October 2007
Thursday, 18 October 2007
MET - Soaring Safari's
The SAWB makes it a high to the south of the country for the next week - i see a low sitting of the west coast - so, at least it will be interesting.
The forecasts here made rely in main on a sounding on the ridges to the NE of Worcester airfield (at S33.5 E19.5) at 14h00 local time. All heights are MSL in feet. Winds are given from the surface up in 5000ft increments. The forecasts run through to Wednesday24, with an increasing error probability (they forecasted no bad weather, excessive wind or rain for the just finished Gauteng Regionals) Conversion factors: 1m/s = 0,5knots and 2kph = 1 knot
I would expect the first three days to be front ridge days (ie Renosterhoek - Huguenot Tunnel) and perhaps George on Tuesday. Sunday will be a good wave day.
Saturday 20 October
Surface wind to 5000ft - 10kphNWN; 40 NWN at 10000ft, 60 15000 and 20000ft
Blue, wave, but only above 21000ft.
Max temp 33,5 dewpoint 6,3, trigger at 33,2C
Expect 1,5 to 1,8m/s to 6700ft
CAUTION: Surface turbulence and again above 8500ft
Sunday 21 October
Surface wind 10W, 20WNW at 5000ft, 40 NW at 10000ft, 50 NW at 15000ft; 60WNW at 20000ft
Blue, WAVE: 6700ft 2,3m/s, 8400ft 2,5m/s, 12300ft 2,3m/s, 14800ft, 1,7m/s, 16700ft 1,6m/s, 19000ft 2,0m/s and 21800ft 2,2m/s
AN EXCELLENT WAVE DAY
Max temp 29,6 dewpoint 9,3C trigger 27,8
Expect 1,2 - 1,7m/s to 6600ft
Monday 22 October
Surface wind W10, NW 10 at 5000ft, NW30 10000ft - 15000ft WNW 50 at 20000ft
Blue, wave above 10300ft at 0,7m/s, and higher
Max temp 27,6, dewpoint 8,3, trigger at 25,5
Expect 1,3m/s - 1,8m/s to 6700ft
Tuesday 23 October
Surface wind NW20, NW 30 at 5000ft, NW 40 at 10000ft, NW60 at 15000ft, NW80 at 20000ft
Wave at 8300ft 2,3m/s at 18900ft at 2,6m/s and higher
Blue
Max 26,3m/s, dewpoint 8,0C trigger at 24,8C
Expect 1,2 - 1,6m/s to 6500ft
Wednesday 24 October
Surface wind W20, 5000ft W20, 10000ft NW40, 15000ft NW50, 20000ft NW70
3/8 cu / stratus with bases at 2500ft - tops at 6600ft
Wave above 10000 at 2,5 ms, 16500ft 2,5 m/s 18900ft at 3.1ms, 24400ft at 2.3ms
Thermic blue
Max 23,7C dewpoint 10,6
Expect 1,4 to 1,8ms to 6800ft
This is about as far as i can take it at the moment.
EY
The forecasts here made rely in main on a sounding on the ridges to the NE of Worcester airfield (at S33.5 E19.5) at 14h00 local time. All heights are MSL in feet. Winds are given from the surface up in 5000ft increments. The forecasts run through to Wednesday24, with an increasing error probability (they forecasted no bad weather, excessive wind or rain for the just finished Gauteng Regionals) Conversion factors: 1m/s = 0,5knots and 2kph = 1 knot
I would expect the first three days to be front ridge days (ie Renosterhoek - Huguenot Tunnel) and perhaps George on Tuesday. Sunday will be a good wave day.
Saturday 20 October
Surface wind to 5000ft - 10kphNWN; 40 NWN at 10000ft, 60 15000 and 20000ft
Blue, wave, but only above 21000ft.
Max temp 33,5 dewpoint 6,3, trigger at 33,2C
Expect 1,5 to 1,8m/s to 6700ft
CAUTION: Surface turbulence and again above 8500ft
Sunday 21 October
Surface wind 10W, 20WNW at 5000ft, 40 NW at 10000ft, 50 NW at 15000ft; 60WNW at 20000ft
Blue, WAVE: 6700ft 2,3m/s, 8400ft 2,5m/s, 12300ft 2,3m/s, 14800ft, 1,7m/s, 16700ft 1,6m/s, 19000ft 2,0m/s and 21800ft 2,2m/s
AN EXCELLENT WAVE DAY
Max temp 29,6 dewpoint 9,3C trigger 27,8
Expect 1,2 - 1,7m/s to 6600ft
Monday 22 October
Surface wind W10, NW 10 at 5000ft, NW30 10000ft - 15000ft WNW 50 at 20000ft
Blue, wave above 10300ft at 0,7m/s, and higher
Max temp 27,6, dewpoint 8,3, trigger at 25,5
Expect 1,3m/s - 1,8m/s to 6700ft
Tuesday 23 October
Surface wind NW20, NW 30 at 5000ft, NW 40 at 10000ft, NW60 at 15000ft, NW80 at 20000ft
Wave at 8300ft 2,3m/s at 18900ft at 2,6m/s and higher
Blue
Max 26,3m/s, dewpoint 8,0C trigger at 24,8C
Expect 1,2 - 1,6m/s to 6500ft
Wednesday 24 October
Surface wind W20, 5000ft W20, 10000ft NW40, 15000ft NW50, 20000ft NW70
3/8 cu / stratus with bases at 2500ft - tops at 6600ft
Wave above 10000 at 2,5 ms, 16500ft 2,5 m/s 18900ft at 3.1ms, 24400ft at 2.3ms
Thermic blue
Max 23,7C dewpoint 10,6
Expect 1,4 to 1,8ms to 6800ft
This is about as far as i can take it at the moment.
EY
Wednesday, 17 October 2007
Fw: [CGCdiscuss] Soaring Safaris@ CGC 19/10 - 3/11- jurisdiction &briefings
---- Original message ----
From: Alan O'Regan <alan@oreganfamily.com>
Sent: 17 Oct 2007 05:48 +00:00
To: <cgcdiscuss@lists.zsd.co.za>
Subject: Re: [CGCdiscuss] Soaring Safaris@ CGC 19/10 - 3/11- jurisdiction &briefings
Hi there
In case there is any doubt:
* Dick Bradley is a Camp Director and will enjoy the privileges of a
CFI (with responsibility for Soaring Safaris operation and pilots) while
operating at the CGC
* We expect CGC pilots flying during the week to either have GPLs or
special clearance from Ian Forbes (just like we have done when Dick was not
around).
* Non-GPL CGC pilots could also possibly fly if you can convince an
instructor to take a day off!
The lawyers amongst us will recognise that the CGC pilots flying while Dick
is here are actually still flying as part of the CGC operation (not Soaring
Safari's), and that means that if you need to be asking for permission or
getting clearance for something (or are just seeking clarification), you
should be asking the CGC flying panel or instructors (just like usual).
For those interested in extending their cross-country range, Sven and I will
be doing some briefings this weekend targeted at Soaring Safari's - but you
are more welcome to attend. First briefing will be at 10h00 on Saturday.
The weather is looking a little iffy (Easterly) and I may well repeat the
session I did last year explaining the ridges in 3D using the flights of the
epic 5000km day.
regards
Alan O'Regan
LS8 X32
Mobile: +27 (83) 300-1687
email: mailto:alan@oreganfamily.com <mailto:oreganak@iafrica.com>
There is a fine line between fishing and standing on the shore like an
idiot.
-----Original Message-----
From: cgcdiscuss-bounces@lists.zsd.co.za
[mailto:cgcdiscuss-bounces@lists.zsd.co.za] On Behalf Of Alan O'Regan
Sent: 17 October 2007 06:59 AM
To: cgcdiscuss@lists.zsd.co.za
Subject: [CGCdiscuss] Soaring Safaris @ CGC 19/10 - 3/11
Hi there
For your information, Dick Bradley will be arriving on Friday (first flying
day is Saturday) with an ASH25, Ventus and an LS6, and will be staying until
3 October.
Please try to make them feel welcome, and be sure to make his English
punters feel better after their rugby team struggles unsuccessfully on
Saturday. If you have to rub it in (and massage is one of your skills), try
to be gentle.
Also consider making use of the opportunity to fly while Dick's operation
affords us the opportunity of two weeks full-time operation. Normal club
rates & procedures apply (like the flying list), and you may get your season
of to a good start.
We are hoping that if they enjoy themselves, Soaring Safaris may come for a
longer period next year, please do whatever you can to assist this.
regards
Alan O'Regan
LS8 X32
Mobile: +27 (83) 300-1687
email: mailto:alan@oreganfamily.com <mailto:oreganak@iafrica.com>
Just because the hole is not on your side of the boat, it doesn't mean you
won't sink.
---- Sent using a Sony Ericsson mobile phone
From: Alan O'Regan <alan@oreganfamily.com>
Sent: 17 Oct 2007 05:48 +00:00
To: <cgcdiscuss@lists.zsd.co.za>
Subject: Re: [CGCdiscuss] Soaring Safaris@ CGC 19/10 - 3/11- jurisdiction &briefings
Hi there
In case there is any doubt:
* Dick Bradley is a Camp Director and will enjoy the privileges of a
CFI (with responsibility for Soaring Safaris operation and pilots) while
operating at the CGC
* We expect CGC pilots flying during the week to either have GPLs or
special clearance from Ian Forbes (just like we have done when Dick was not
around).
* Non-GPL CGC pilots could also possibly fly if you can convince an
instructor to take a day off!
The lawyers amongst us will recognise that the CGC pilots flying while Dick
is here are actually still flying as part of the CGC operation (not Soaring
Safari's), and that means that if you need to be asking for permission or
getting clearance for something (or are just seeking clarification), you
should be asking the CGC flying panel or instructors (just like usual).
For those interested in extending their cross-country range, Sven and I will
be doing some briefings this weekend targeted at Soaring Safari's - but you
are more welcome to attend. First briefing will be at 10h00 on Saturday.
The weather is looking a little iffy (Easterly) and I may well repeat the
session I did last year explaining the ridges in 3D using the flights of the
epic 5000km day.
regards
Alan O'Regan
LS8 X32
Mobile: +27 (83) 300-1687
email: mailto:alan@oreganfamily.com <mailto:oreganak@iafrica.com>
There is a fine line between fishing and standing on the shore like an
idiot.
-----Original Message-----
From: cgcdiscuss-bounces@lists.zsd.co.za
[mailto:cgcdiscuss-bounces@lists.zsd.co.za] On Behalf Of Alan O'Regan
Sent: 17 October 2007 06:59 AM
To: cgcdiscuss@lists.zsd.co.za
Subject: [CGCdiscuss] Soaring Safaris @ CGC 19/10 - 3/11
Hi there
For your information, Dick Bradley will be arriving on Friday (first flying
day is Saturday) with an ASH25, Ventus and an LS6, and will be staying until
3 October.
Please try to make them feel welcome, and be sure to make his English
punters feel better after their rugby team struggles unsuccessfully on
Saturday. If you have to rub it in (and massage is one of your skills), try
to be gentle.
Also consider making use of the opportunity to fly while Dick's operation
affords us the opportunity of two weeks full-time operation. Normal club
rates & procedures apply (like the flying list), and you may get your season
of to a good start.
We are hoping that if they enjoy themselves, Soaring Safaris may come for a
longer period next year, please do whatever you can to assist this.
regards
Alan O'Regan
LS8 X32
Mobile: +27 (83) 300-1687
email: mailto:alan@oreganfamily.com <mailto:oreganak@iafrica.com>
Just because the hole is not on your side of the boat, it doesn't mean you
won't sink.
---- Sent using a Sony Ericsson mobile phone
Wednesday, 10 October 2007
Soaring Safari's
Shortly to arrive in our nick of the woods are Dick Bradley and his merry men. The SAWB forecast for the period 16 to 22 October is as follows
The flow of tropical air over the central and eastern interior being maintained druing this week. A cold front will reach the Cape on the 18th and between the 21st and 23rd a further cut-off low will move across the south-western part of the country. Rainfall chances will remain very good over the central and eastern interior during this outlook period. Temperatures seem to be indicated to be normal to above-normal for the Free State and for provinces north of the Vaal river during this period, while temperatures for the Cape Peninsula seem to be likely to be relatively normal (in comparison with typical climatological conditions for the month of October).
It looks like there will be some good post-frontal flying with southerly winds - no doubt mixed up with some good wave flying as the cold front moves in
EY
The flow of tropical air over the central and eastern interior being maintained druing this week. A cold front will reach the Cape on the 18th and between the 21st and 23rd a further cut-off low will move across the south-western part of the country. Rainfall chances will remain very good over the central and eastern interior during this outlook period. Temperatures seem to be indicated to be normal to above-normal for the Free State and for provinces north of the Vaal river during this period, while temperatures for the Cape Peninsula seem to be likely to be relatively normal (in comparison with typical climatological conditions for the month of October).
It looks like there will be some good post-frontal flying with southerly winds - no doubt mixed up with some good wave flying as the cold front moves in
EY
Sunday, 7 October 2007
Sunset, Sunday
The wind is swinging south and apparently it is bitterly cold at the airfield, snow is predicted!!
A webcam photo
EY (@thedesk)
A webcam photo
EY (@thedesk)
Saturday, 6 October 2007
CLUB CONTEST
Back from the Gauteng regionals I am deskbound and the closest i can get to the monthly club contest is to do the Thursday nite prediction, below and then to watch the weather unfold on the Cam - well i hope they do get some diamond heights and long distances in!! (and that i won't be eating my hat)
The thursday nite prediction
"With the Gauntlet due on Saturday and the final two weeks of OLC approaching it is about time that we have a serious look at the weather
I can't fly in the time that Dick B will be here, but i hope to be able to post forecasts every two days (it will help to keep me of the pills in the asylum)
Saturday
The task setting will be interesting with ridges, thermals and wave working.
The airmass is not so moist (dewpoint 6C) but cool with a max temp of 17 and a trigger of 14.8C, so expect some cloud at lower than normal levels - but thermic cu should have bases from 4500 topping 7000ft
The winds are ideal, westerly to Renosterhoek and Southwesterly to George
At 14h00 they should be surface 20WSW, 30W at 5000, 50W at 10000ft, 60W at 15000ft and 70W at 20000ft
The wave forecast is however, STUNNING with wave predicted at 11h00 from 10000ft to 24000ft experience has taught that in the Worcester valley the wave will be contactable a lot lower!!!
The prediction at 14h00 in any event is wave from 8200ft at 2.7m/s through to 24000ft at 1.7m/s peaking at 3.4m/s at 14000ft
My guess is that if you don't already have a diamond height, now is the time to fill up the bottle, file the flightplan and launch at 10h30
Sunday is more interesting, with a very strong south easter combined with a front to the SW!!! (at least that is what raob says) The SE will be a very black one.
EY
PS if these predictions all come out i will eat a hat (but not the one i fly with)!!!"
must say: "Wish i was there!!"
EY (andbacktothedesk).
The thursday nite prediction
"With the Gauntlet due on Saturday and the final two weeks of OLC approaching it is about time that we have a serious look at the weather
I can't fly in the time that Dick B will be here, but i hope to be able to post forecasts every two days (it will help to keep me of the pills in the asylum)
Saturday
The task setting will be interesting with ridges, thermals and wave working.
The airmass is not so moist (dewpoint 6C) but cool with a max temp of 17 and a trigger of 14.8C, so expect some cloud at lower than normal levels - but thermic cu should have bases from 4500 topping 7000ft
The winds are ideal, westerly to Renosterhoek and Southwesterly to George
At 14h00 they should be surface 20WSW, 30W at 5000, 50W at 10000ft, 60W at 15000ft and 70W at 20000ft
The wave forecast is however, STUNNING with wave predicted at 11h00 from 10000ft to 24000ft experience has taught that in the Worcester valley the wave will be contactable a lot lower!!!
The prediction at 14h00 in any event is wave from 8200ft at 2.7m/s through to 24000ft at 1.7m/s peaking at 3.4m/s at 14000ft
My guess is that if you don't already have a diamond height, now is the time to fill up the bottle, file the flightplan and launch at 10h30
Sunday is more interesting, with a very strong south easter combined with a front to the SW!!! (at least that is what raob says) The SE will be a very black one.
EY
PS if these predictions all come out i will eat a hat (but not the one i fly with)!!!"
must say: "Wish i was there!!"
EY (andbacktothedesk).
Monday, 1 October 2007
Post script
All's well that ends well. Well, it almost did not. Doc pulled a Ben Flewett on the last day in his final glide and ended up doing a direct 09 approach between two sets of hangars (also directly into wind). It appears to have been yet another microburst!!! They are really lethal and it is only the quick thinking of an experienced pilot that saved the day . Well done to Doc for the winning the 15m class.
It was only in the 15M and Open class that we had a contest, and then only because all the pilots had agreed an extension of the contest by one day. It is a pity that the other classses did not get a contest. To go back a moment to my last post where i was sitting in a field 12 km from the second turnpoint.
On day three three pilots made it home: Doc, Mannie and John Coutts. It was a tough day and they really did well!! Just before i landed Mannie was 300m above me, and how he made it home remains a mystery. But thanks to the three of them we had a contest day on Saturday and the chance on Sunday to make it a contest (four days are required).
Day four dawned with mist and low cloud and sounding data which indicated a weaker and tougher day than the day before. It was only the discipline instilled by many contests that made me go through the motions of rigging and filling up. I nearly stopped when i heard a decision would be made at 9h00. At the briefing there was some debate and ultimately the contest director did the Polish thing (there they fly irrespective of anything - a flash back to sterner times we were given to understand) and declared that we would be flying, the task to be handed out on the grid.
There must have been some rebellion in the 18m class, spilling over into the open class: the former did not fly and some of the latter left early (a pity as the day would turn out to be challenging but satisfying).
I was first on the grid, but had the benefit of knowing from PN and KG that the conditions were flyable.
It was an assigned area task, two hours. The moment the gate opened, and with the previous day still fresh in our collective memories, we all set off almost immediately. CE and i took a few extra turns before crossing the startline with the 133, 2T and AG ahead of us. I stuck with John, and man, does he fly well. Going past Ventersdorp we were well ahead of the pack and John nearly beguiled me into running much to far into the first sector (as i suspect he did.) I turned away and aimed for the west side of the Derby sector, running even further west to stay with the cloud. The good run was over and at Koster i had to do some creative flying to stay in the game. It was all good fun on the way home, except for the last 20km (see above).
A big thank you to the Magalies Gliding Club and all its members - it was a really nice contest.
EY
It was only in the 15M and Open class that we had a contest, and then only because all the pilots had agreed an extension of the contest by one day. It is a pity that the other classses did not get a contest. To go back a moment to my last post where i was sitting in a field 12 km from the second turnpoint.
On day three three pilots made it home: Doc, Mannie and John Coutts. It was a tough day and they really did well!! Just before i landed Mannie was 300m above me, and how he made it home remains a mystery. But thanks to the three of them we had a contest day on Saturday and the chance on Sunday to make it a contest (four days are required).
Day four dawned with mist and low cloud and sounding data which indicated a weaker and tougher day than the day before. It was only the discipline instilled by many contests that made me go through the motions of rigging and filling up. I nearly stopped when i heard a decision would be made at 9h00. At the briefing there was some debate and ultimately the contest director did the Polish thing (there they fly irrespective of anything - a flash back to sterner times we were given to understand) and declared that we would be flying, the task to be handed out on the grid.
There must have been some rebellion in the 18m class, spilling over into the open class: the former did not fly and some of the latter left early (a pity as the day would turn out to be challenging but satisfying).
I was first on the grid, but had the benefit of knowing from PN and KG that the conditions were flyable.
It was an assigned area task, two hours. The moment the gate opened, and with the previous day still fresh in our collective memories, we all set off almost immediately. CE and i took a few extra turns before crossing the startline with the 133, 2T and AG ahead of us. I stuck with John, and man, does he fly well. Going past Ventersdorp we were well ahead of the pack and John nearly beguiled me into running much to far into the first sector (as i suspect he did.) I turned away and aimed for the west side of the Derby sector, running even further west to stay with the cloud. The good run was over and at Koster i had to do some creative flying to stay in the game. It was all good fun on the way home, except for the last 20km (see above).
A big thank you to the Magalies Gliding Club and all its members - it was a really nice contest.
EY
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
