Monday 29 June 2009

The Northern Hemisphere

things are really heating up in the northern hemisphere. Both the Europeans and the Junior Worlds are on the go, with a Polish lad in a LS8 leading after 5 days. The weather where Ulf flies was not so good yesterday - he barely got above 900m with weak climbs. Meanwhile in the West Jim Payne, still in the SparrowHawk, reported as follows:
"Mission of the day was a 500 km speed triangle. SeeYou says I can claim 3 Ultralight Glider World Records: Speed Around a 500 km Triangle, Triangle Distance, and Free Triangle Distance. Ran out of daylight else would have managed a 1,000 OLC km. Thank you, Greg Cole, for use of your excellent sailplane."
http://www3.onlinecontest.org/olc-2.0/gliding/flightinfo.html?dsId=918781
At the same time Mannie and Thorsten Streppel are having a great time in Parowan, Mannie took a Cirrus around a 703km OLC course, whilst Thorsten marked up 1048km in a LS 6.
EY

Friday 26 June 2009

The Wicked Witch from Tswane

This from the Wicked Witch in Tswane
"I HAVE A DREAM . . .

Yes, indeed, and with sincere apologies to the late Martin Luther King, I do have a dream albeit with less hope of it ever becoming a reality. After all, the Reverend King delivered his impassioned plea on August 26, 1963, in Washington DC and although America has a black president not much has changed since the days of him with the ears, George W Bush. The ghettos are still packed to capacity, black youths are hanging about, jobless, poor, and with little hope of changing their lives soon. The rich are not as rich as they used to be, the poor are worse off than ever before.
We elected our first black president in 1994, so why do I still have a dream?
As King has so aptly pointed out there, is a cheque to be cashed. When the architects of our constitution committed those words, based on amongst other things, the Magna Carta, to paper, they made a promise to the electorate: A promise that guaranteed every citizen the inalienable rights of liberty, life, and the pursuit of happiness. A very tall order, one could say.
But, with King, I want to reiterate, that we should not be bitter or revengeful because the promises, probably made in good faith, were not met. We should always act within the restraints of the law.
Despite disappointment and frustrations I still have a dream that one day this nation will hold this truth to be self-evident: all men are NOT created equal. We have equal rights under the constitution, yes, but equal we are not. Some of us are clever, some sly, some honest, some dishonest, some talented, some dumb and others dumber, and so one can go on. And as for happiness, we may pursue it, but some of us are saddled with depression, discontent and other genetic and imagined disorders.
I still dream that heads of state and high officials in government and private companies will allocate lower salaries to themselves and better salaries to those in lower positions.
I dream of an effective and cheerful civil service who understands the idea of service.
I have a dream of a united country where all citizens are kind and friendly and reach out to the one next to them, no matter what colour or creed.
I have a dream of a country where people try to understand someone else’s point of view, his culture and her language.
I have a dream of a country free of corruption, graft and crime and the covering up of the aforementioned.
I have a dream of people who respect themselves and their property as well as other people and their property.
I have a dream of a country where the environment is respected and maintained for those who come after us.
I have a dream of a country where every person can read, write, and calculate.
I have a dream of a country where religion is respected and practised in schools so that children can acquaint themselves with different religions and broaden their vision.
I have a dream where physical exercise and sport are made compulsory in schools in order to develop team spirit and a healthy nation.
I have a dream of a country where those who work hard are not taxed till they drop dead from sheer exhaustion.
I dream of a country where the taxpayer can see clearly where his tax money goes, i.e. proper roads, effective policing, working hospitals, and responsible teachers in good schools.
I dream of government, business and municipal employees who answer their telephones on the first ring and do not pass you on and on and on till kingdom come.
I dream of a country where the electricity supplier is honest and keeps his house in order by properly maintaining power plants etc.
I have a dream that every developer is compelled by law to supply sustainable energy to every building, whether private or public, he or she constructs.
Yes, I have a dream, but it seems more and more like a pipe dream, I fear.

A few sad facts:

The Magna Carta was sealed but not signed by King John Soft Sword, the brother of Richard Lionheart. It is assumed that the king could neither write nor read.
In 1996 more nations were members of FIFA than the United Nations.
Married Love by Marie Stopes was published in 1918. The book was published in Afrikaans in 1927, but was declared legal in the United States in 1931 and went on to become one of the most influential books of its time.
William Wilberforce made a speech in British Parliament in 1789. It was almost immediately published as On the abolition of the slave trade. I wish I could report that the slave trade is dead.

A book or two on a more cheerful note

The Alchemy of Murder, Carol McCleary.
McCleary’s riproaring take on Jack the Ripper involves historical figures from Louis Pasteur to Oscar Wilde. One hopes to see more of her heroine, the feisty reporter, Nelly Bly.
Vroue bly gesond lewenslank, Sarah Jarvis, red.
A comprehensive look at women’s health by a panel of doctors.
The Miracle at Speedy Motors, Alexander McCall Smith.
The brand new Mma Ramotswe mystery is moving much slower than usual, yet it is a comforting read in these troubled times.
Afrikaans readers will be happy to know that these mysteries are now available in Afrikaans."

EY

447 - a real life experience

Time is running out to find the black boxes, and no-one is any the wiser as yet. But it seems that you don't want to get rained on at Fl390 ...
"Well, I'm sure you have all heard of the Air France accident. I fly the same plane, the A330. Yesterday while coming up from Hong Kong to Tokyo, a 1700nm 4hr. flight, we experienced the same problems Air France had while flying thru bad weather. I have a link to the failures that occurred on AF 447. My list is almost the same. http://www.eurocockpit.com/images/acars447.php The problem I suspect is the pitot tubes ice over and you loose your airspeed indication along with the auto pilot, auto throttles and rudder limit protection. The rudder limit protection keeps you from over stressing the rudder at high speed. Synopsis; Tuesday 23, 2009 10am enroute HKG to NRT. Entering Nara Japan airspace. FL390 mostly clear with occasional isolated areas of rain, clouds tops about FL410. Outside air temperature was -50C TAT -21C (your not supposed to get liquid water at these temps). We did. As we were following other aircraft along our route. We approached a large area of rain below us. Tilting the weather radar down we could see the heavy rain below, displayed in red. At our altitude the radar indicated green or light precipitation, most likely ice crystals we thought. Entering the cloud tops we experienced just light to moderate turbulence. (The winds were around 30kts at altitude.) After about 15 sec. we encountered moderate rain. We thought it odd to have rain streaming up the windshield at this altitude and the sound of the plane getting pelted like an aluminum garage door. It got very warm and humid in the cockpit all of a sudden. Five seconds later the Captains, First Officers, and standby airspeed indicators rolled back to 60kts. The auto pilot and auto throttles disengaged. The Master Warning and Master Caution flashed, and the sounds of chirps and clicks letting us know these things were happening. Jerry Staab, the Capt. hand flew the plane on the shortest vector out of the rain. The airspeed indicators briefly came back but failed again. The failure lasted for THREE minutes. We flew the recommended 83%N1 power setting. When the airspeed indicators came back. we were within 5 knots of our desired speed. Everything returned to normal except for the computer logic controlling the plane. (We were in alternate law for the rest of the flight.) We had good conditions for the failure; daylight, we were rested, relatively small area, and light turbulence. I think it could have been much worse. Jerry did a great job fly and staying cool. We did our procedures called dispatch and maintenance on the SAT COM and landed in Narita. That's it."
It appears that they only lost airspeed indication and presumably even in alternate law you should be OK if you keep at 83%N1 power setting? So even though it does not sound good, it does not explain what happened on 447?
EY

Sunday 21 June 2009

an ASW 27 in the northern hemisphere

This from Errol Drew -

Pics I took flying with one of my buddies the other day over northern VT next to Canadian border. (Maine mtns in background) 7,000ft cloudbase that day in some areas with 40k cloud streets. Think I had only around 8 climbs in 300ks.


Like any good buddy Drew in his 27 did not gloat that he clearly gained on Y6, as these sequential photos show!!
We didn't have the wave yesterday i had predicted, so it is nice to hear about some good flying from elsewhere!
EY

447 - still speculation

as someone has pointed out, under alternate law g-force remain within limits - the +5g in the simulation is therefore wrong (i don't know the g-limits on the 33o, but under direct law i can do +6 in EY (no, i haven't ever tried it)


Mandala499 writes on airliner.net:

"1. This isn't the case of them not trusting their instruments. They lost airspeed data and the autothrottle (and autopilot) switched off. They would execute the "unrealiable speed indication" procedure which was to set a target pitch and put the thrust to climb. After determining they can start trouble shooting, they would look up the QRH for what pitch and engine power they need for a reasonably level flight (they did as it seems, have altitude data). The problem is, no airspeed data, the QRH warns of stall warnings, which may come from the lack of airspeed data, or a true stall from the AoA vane. They wouldn't know which stall warning was real, and which one was fake. Whilst the Air Caraibes case went through the same thing, they already had manual thrust before the airspeed data was lost, in that case, they knew they had the right speed based on the right thrust and pitch. The crew of AF447 didn't have that luxury (which is the irony of it all!)... they needed to carry out the full "unreliable airspeed" procedure, not knowing if they had the right speed to begin with... Get a stall warning... is it real? or not? Very hard call to make!
2. All this does not mean that this accident is caused by only one factor. It needs to be a chain of factors... otherwise, unless a catastrophic failure, the accident should not have happened. My take on this is:
- Heightened stress and fatigue due to previous bad weather. (Human Factors)
- Alertness obscured by relief that the aircraft seems to have left the storm. (Human Factors)
- Icing (Weather)
- Pitot Tubes blocked (Technical)- Reversion to stress causing higher risk of poorer performance (Human Factors)
- Loss of airspeed data (Technical) and possibility of loosing the mental picture of thrust/pitch relationship/trajectory/condition prior to loss of airspeed data (Human Factors)
- Multiple ECAM messages leading to heightened stress and task saturation (Technical and Human Factors)
- Possibility of stall warnings adding to a confusing situation (technical & human factors).- Further degradation of human performance caused by all the above, leading to degraded analytical capability leading to high risks of error in judgement regarding required action (Human Factors).Beyond this..."
EY

Friday 19 June 2009

Le Weekend 20 June 2009

A GREAT WAVE WEEKEND - ESPECIALLY TOMORROW
SATURDAY
Winds are Northerly going NW at altitude. Surface wind - N10, 5000ft NNW20, 10000ft NWN 50, 15000ft NW 40,20000ft NW 50
STRONG surface turbulence Shear is light at 10ms per 4km
Wave from 6600ft upwards to 45 000ft REALLY GOOD WAVE!!!!
Cloud some low scud cloud 3/8 from 2500 - 5000ft, Higher up (from 25 000ft 3-5/8 to 40000ft
Max 18.2 Dewpoint 10.2 Trigger 18.4Expect 0.5 ms - 0.9 ms to 4000ft
SUNDAY
THERE IS NOW SOLID CLOUD FROM 20000ft upwardsSurface wind - NWN 10, 5000ft NW 20, 10000ft NWN 50, 15000ft NW 60, 20000ft NW 70
Wind shear is the same as Saturday but expect some STRONG GUSTS (bigger than 40knots at altitude)
Wave predicted from 10000ft but i would expect a lower entry in the valley.Cloud - some low level scud cloud and then from 200000ft 8/8 with some cloud from 16000ft
Max 18.1 Dewpoint 10.5 Trigger 18.2 Expect 0.5 ms - 0.8 ms to 4000ft

TIME TO DO THOSE DIAMONDS

EY (for sale)

First FLIGHT

Last weekend Jac Snyman took his first flight in his Phoebus. Reminded me of years ago when i crewed for another pilot flying Steve Murray's Phoebus at Tempe airfield, Bloemfontein - that was in the early 70's and i could barely see over the Chev Camaro i had to drive back from the launchpoint!!!
Here's a photo of Jac

Gordon (Storm Chasers) predicts as follows:
"Looking at the models this morning (Fri 19th) gives a bit more clarity to the system, but no change to the basic forecast.The next 8 hours in Cape Town will be sunny and warm. Tonight high clouds from an upper-trough will move in, mostly to the east. On Sat 20th a front will brush offshore, and together with the trough bringing cooler and cloudy air, but no rain for CT.On Sun 21st a strong front will be developing to the west of CT, but will not make landfall until the morning of Mon 22nd. The system will develop further during Tues 23rd, with very strong winds (> 60km/h) likely, and lingering till Wed 24th.By Thur 25h the cold and wet weather should exit over the eastern half of SA, and clear skies should prevail for CT, though likely very cold.
Please note: Although no board code and smiley buttons are shown, they are still usable.
gordonr (User)
EF-2 Tornado "

Thursday 18 June 2009

447 in the sim

It is all still speculation (and very little facts) but this posting is interesting - i think there may one 320 and one 747 captain reading this - any comment?

Interesting post from PPRUNE forum, regarding A330 simulator:The following information that is posted in this reply is something that may interest you all. The scenario was conducted several times and the results at the end of each scenario produced consistent findings.In an A330 simulator at FL 350 with a gross weight of 210 tonnes in ISA+10, with icing selected, the aircraft approaches a thunderstorm with a high intensity of turbulence. Due to the extreme turbulence, the autopilot disengages. Shortly thereafter a malfunction is selected to block both captain's and first officer's pitot tubes to replicate extreme ice formation.The airplane reverts to alternate law with protection lost. There is a speed flag on both the Captain's and FO's PFD. The severe turbulence activates repeated stall warnings. Manual thrust is being used at this time. The speed on the standby altimeter is reading 240kts or thereabouts with MACH .72. From the GPS the ground speed is 350 kts or thereabouts. It is very difficult to read the instruments and ECAM warnings.Updrafts take the aircraft up to FL 370 and produces a negative G of .2. The aircraft then enters severe downdrafts and the rate of descent averages more than 19,000 fpm. The instinctive reaction is to pull on the stick to arrest the rate of descent. The aircraft shakes and buffets violently. The G force on the SD reads +5 but the instructor's panel shows +8. The aircraft breaks up in flight around 20,000 ft.After several attempts at this with all results being equal one could not see AF447 sending out any distress signals if this is what happened to them. Applying an unreliable airspeed memory item would have proven to be very difficult because of the violent shaking and opening a QRH for an ADR check procedure even less likely.

EY

Wednesday 17 June 2009

Austrian Championships

The results are just out and the Sultan of Swing, Peter Hartmann, won the standard class, with his WGC teammate Michael Rass, in second place (Peter wore headgear in Rieti that any sultan would have been proud of, and he can fly a glider just as well as Mark Knopffler can play a guitar, no doubt for that reason he placed 3rd in Rieti). Peter and Michael were close neighbours in Rieti and I look forward to seeing them Priviedza.


"Nach vier Wertungstagen setzten sich grosso modo wieder einmal die Favoriten durch, auch wenn es in der 18-Meter-Klasse mit dem zweiten Platz von Wolfgang Janowitsch eine handfeste Überraschung gab. Der Tiroler Bernhard Leitner nutzte einen navigatorischen Dokumentationsfehler des vormaligen Welt- und zweifachen Europameisters am Tag 3 aus und krönte sich damit erstmals zum Staatsmeister in der 18-Meter-Klasse. Dahinter auf Platz 3 konnte sich der Vorarlberger Werner Amann platzieren. Am 4. Rang plazierte sich der stärkste Nicht-Österreicher im Feld, Justin Wills aus Neuseeland auf einer Antares.
In der 15-Meter-Klasse siegte der bestechend fliegende Oberösterreicher Edi Supersberger vor dem Kapfenberger Herbert Ziegerhofer und dem Mariazeller Lokalmatador Heimo Demmerer.
Die Standardklasse brachte den Sieg des WM-Dritten von 2008, Peter Hartmann. Hinter ihm folgten Michael Rass (Tirol) und Alex Koppler aus Oberösterreich.
Die Clubklasse schließlich brachte den Titel für den haushohen Favoriten Aurel Hallbrunner aus Tirol vor dem Steirer Jan Jagiello und Florian Forcher, der damit wohl die erste Medaille bei Segelflug-Staatsmeisterschaften für den Landesverband Burgenland geholt hat."
EY

447 - a summary

I think it will be while before we know what happened, this was posted by ZEKE on http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/4449113/#menu92

AF 447. A Summary
An Air France Airbus A330-200 registered as FGHCP took off from Rio de Janeiro – GIG – for Paris – CDG – at 22.03Z, on May 31st with 216 passengers and 12 crew members.It was proceeding via airway UN873 at Flight Level 350.It checked position INTOL at 0133Z , June 1st, and passed an estimate for TASIL at 0223Z.Brazilian authorities revealed that he flew out of radar coverage at 0148Z, maintaining Flight level 350.Around 0200Z, on a communication to Air France Operations, the crew indicated that they were experiencing “strong turbulence” as they approached the ITCZ.Between 0210Z and 0214Z, a quick succession of 24 maintenance messages reported a series of warnings to the crew, along with some advisory on several systems faults and some maintenance messages.The aircraft never transmitted a position report at TASIL and never checked with Senegalese ATC.A search and rescue operation was launched which led to the discovery of the airplane debris over a large area of the ocean.
FLIGHT INITIATION
In spite of lack of precise information, we can however estimate with a high degree of certainty that the flight took off at maximum take-off weight : 216 out of 219 seats were occupied and we know that a few passengers were refused boarding, which is normal SOP for keeping the weight within the structural limits.With that MTOW of 233 T, we can estimate the weight at the last transmission position at about 206 T.
AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE AND ALTITUDE CAPABILITY
The airplane was well below its optimum flight level, hence its maximum altitude capability. There was no question on its buffet margins (No “coffin corner” situation for the ISA + 14°C conditions they both planned for and encountered).
WEATHER
According to independently studied weather situation, there was nothing unusual in both the position in latitude and in convective activity inside the ITCZ. Tim Vasquez, who made the most thorough analysis, identified some potentially very active cells in the vicinity of the planned flight track and the French Weather Office found that in fact the active Cbs in the area had already started their decaying phase around 0200Z.
ACARS MESSAGES
A summary was made public on June 4th of the received maintenance messages.It is to be stressed that :1/- They only concern the messages addressed to AF maintenance through an automated protocol.2/- They cannot in any case be regarded as equivalent to a DFDR recording.3/- For lack of an access to the complete digital coding of the reported faults, some interpretation could be erroneous.4/- The summary refers to 24 individual messages that have not been made public.Anyway, some attempts at interpretation have – and still can – be made as to the understanding of the technical aspects of the last moments of the flight.REPORTED SYSTEMS FAULTS
They are about Automatic Flight System, Flight controls system, Navigation systems and Air Conditioning & Pressurization.Prominently figuring in the list are the airplane’s ADRs or air data reference units. Some identified codes reveal that in all probability, the faulty channels are related to aerodynamic speed data, which made official services look into the origin of the data : the total pressure probes, better known as “Pitot tubes”, the more when it was revealed that a few incidents – some serious – with similar subsequent warnings have happened in the past. One of them, an Air Caraibes flight from Fort-de-France to Orly led the crew to a very difficult-to-manage flight situation (more later).
SEARCH AND WRECKAGE RECOVERY
Parts of the aircraft and some 50 bodies have so far been recovered, with the Brazilian authorities in charge of forensic medicine and the French dealing with the examination and treatment of the debris.So far, the priority has been given to the occupants of Flight 447, with some urgency acknowledged for the identification and localisation of the flight recorders, the “pingers” of which having a limited life.Very little is known about a precise location of the found and recovered parts of the aircraft.Of some notice are : the tail fin, the left inner spoiler, parts of the Crew Rest container, the forward twin jump seats and the doctor’s kit, the location of which are well known inside the plane.
PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS
Very few can be made with a high degree of certainty.However, if we concentrate on facts, we can derive the most likely picture of what happened in this cockpit up to the moment of the last transmission.These facts are :-A night flight in an area of active Cb cells, some likely turbulence, in and out of the main system’s cloud tops of cirrus and some heavy moisture.-A loss of indicated airspeed data, an auto-pilot disengagement leading to a manual partial panel flying with degraded flight control laws.
WHAT IS NOT KNOWN ?
Basically everything that happened after 0214Z, the time of the last transmission.At this stage, it is impossible to determine an in-flight structural break-up or a high-speed impact with the ocean surface.
READING BETWEEN THE OFFICIAL LINES
Most documents, published by Airbus Industrie or the BEA or the EASA seem to suggest that at least the loss of aerodynamic data – meaning either the Pitot tubes or the ADRs – could have been a contributory factor to this accident.We’ll have to deal with each aspect in order to keep some intellectual honesty in this accident study.As we are not privy to the complete documents or the findings of the investigation team, I’d like to repeat that our job is more of a sleuthing nature than an analysis of the complete access to the evidences. And even in that case, we are not trained in accident investigation.And I have to apologise for that proviso.

EY

Sunday 14 June 2009

Flight 447

Very little has yet come to light - but for a up to date and lively discussion you have to go to http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/4443121/#menu210
Hitherto i have not know about "direct law", "alternate law" and "normal law", interesting to say the least.
EY

The Soaring Safaris - Jonker Sailplane Challenge

An update for all those competitors out there

"Pilots wishing to submit flights for the Soaring Safaris - Jonker Sailplanes Challenge should send an email to Iain Baker at the.zen.glider.pilot@googlemail.com and Iain will monitor and check flights on OLC."

We will all be keeping an eye on OLC, but submit those claims to your adjudicator, Iain Baker.

EY

Friday 12 June 2009

Le weekend 13 June

As at Friday evening it is blue skies and no wind, but the prediction is for lots of cloud and wind by 14h00 tomorrow at Worcester - we shall see!
Saturday
The sounding is moist from the surface all the way up which is consistent withe forecast of rain.
Surface wind - 20NW, 5000ft 50NW, 10000ft 70NW, 15000ft 100NWN, 20000ft 130NW
Strong surface turbulence, but too strong for convective gusts. Shear is 24m/s per 4km
Rain is NOT forecast on the sounding
Wave ONLY at 45000ft!!!
Cloud 3-5/8 from 2000ft to 27000ft
Max 12.3 Dewpoint 108 Trigger 15.5CExpect not much 0 J/kg
Sunday
A nice kink in the sounding - showing an inversion at 10000ft - this should make for a nice day's flying in weak thermic conditions
Surface wind - NW20, 5000ft NW 30, 10000ft W 60, 15000ft W70,20000ft W60
Strong surface turbulence!!!Shear drops to 12ms per 4km
Wave from 12000ft upwards, but i would expect it much lower in the valley ;-)
Cloud - low scud clouds - 3000ft - 5000ft
Max 15.4 Dewpoint 9.3 Trigger 14.9Expect 0.9 ms - 1.2 ms to 5000ft
Nice flying

Friday 5 June 2009

The Jonker Sailplanes & Soaring Safaris Challenge

There are few prizes in gliding - here is a new one.
This from the manufacturers of the JS1 in conjunction with Dick Bradley

Jonker Sailplanes and Soaring Safaris are pleased to announce a new prize for South African glider pilots. Jointly sponsored by Jonker Sailplanes and Soaring Safaris, the prize is intended to encourage and reward up and coming pilots. The prize is one week’s gliding at New Tempe, including use of a glider, launches and coaching.

The Prize:
· One week flying an LS4 or similar glider with Soaring Safaris (dates to be agreed)
· Seven aerotows
· Task planning, post-flight analysis and cross-country coaching
· Free camping at New Tempe Airfield

Rules:
1. Scoring is based on the OLC system and handicaps, limited to out & returns and triangles.
2. Flights have to be registered and validated on OLC.
3. A pilot’s total score for the JS-SS Challenge is the sum of the pilot’s three best flights.
4. Minimum qualifying score is 600 points.
5. Eligibility: pilots who have not achieved a top three placing at a National contest, or who have not previously won the JS/SS Challenge, or have not completed a declared 500km task.
6. Pilots must be paid up members of SSSA with a valid GPL and aerotow rating.
7. Closing date for flights: 15 November 2009.
8. That’s enough rules ....

Good luck.


And it is aimed at the up and coming pilots!! 560 points in one flight would be Renosterhoek - Huguenot Tunnel - Renosterhoek - FAWC in an Astir. Now put 3 of those together and you are set for a week's flying with Dick.
Go for it.!!!!!!!

EY

Thursday 4 June 2009

Le weekend 6 June, and 447

Cold does not mean no thermals!!! The predicted low cloud should be no problem. Also interesting is what should be southerly wave on Sunday. Saturday should have Diamonds to offer!!!!
Saturday
Surface wind - WSW20, 5000ft WSW30, 10000ft SW60, 15000ft SW 70, 20000ft WSW 80Medium strong surface turbulence, and light from 7000ft - 10000ftStrong inversion above 7000ftWindshear is 15ms/4-kmWave from 8200ft to 30000ft 2.5m/sCloud Surface to 7000ft 1 - 5/8Max 13.6 Dewpoint 8.8 Trigger 13.5Expect .7 ms - 1.2 ms to 5000ft
Sunday
Surface wind - S 10, 5000ft S10, 10000ft S40, 15000ft S30,20000ft S40Shear is low at 8ms/4km and only light CAT surface and again at 5 - 7000ftWave from 10000ft upwards (not often that we have southerly wave!!!)Cloud 1-3/8 from 2500 - 5000ftMax 13.8 Dewpoint 7.1 Trigger 13.3Expect 0.8 ms - 1.3 ms to ft 5300ft.
Flight 447
I did a RAOB analysis of the model soundings around the time and place of disappearance and these soundings show nothing out of the ordinary - only low category storms (not even multi of supercells), no or little windshear, no or little CAT or HIGH CAT, and NO lightning. This accord with Tim Vasquez' far more detailed analysis. Puzzling! It looks like a midair or in flight disintegration.
EY

Wednesday 3 June 2009

Flight 447

Some analysis of the weather conditions that may have faced flight 447
http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/af447/
EY

Asperatus - a new form of cloud

Asperatus - a new form of cloud!!!
See http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_8076000/8076805.stm
as well as http://cloudappreciationsociety.org/collectors-handbook/
and my photo http://svensoaring.blogspot.com/2009/05/blog-post_21.html below (it does have some asperatus in it)

EY

... meanwhile in Germany

Meanwhile in Germany it is German Nationals. This from Angelika Fiebig.

Hi, Sven,
thank you for all your mails you sent during the last weeks. Volker got them in Aalen-Elchingen ;-)
Perhaps you know that he is Uli's copilot during the German championships. They are flying V8.
What I just found out ist that the online tracking is working. So if you are interested you can follow several gliders on the homepage. You will find it under "lifevideo". It is not of good quality but it works.
Many happy returns to your family and enjoy the rest of your gliding season.
Angelika

The link is http://www.dsm2009-aalen.de/ - as of yesterday they are in 18th position with Steffen Trapp in the lead. In the 15m class the Bauder and Theisinger families are at the top of the leader board (with Carl Bauder in the lead) and in the standard class Franx Poch is leading with Michael Buchthal in 6th, Gerd Peter Lauer 4th and Mario Kiessling in 3rd and Patrick Gai 22nd - just to give you an idea of how fierce the competition is.
The club class German Nationals is at http://www.lsv-schwarzwald.de/pages/dmwinzeln2009.php and here the Standard Libelle's are ruling the roost, Lutz Seiler in 4th and Matthias Sturm in 6th, with Tobias Welsch in 1st and Jens Becker in 2nd.

EY

World Air Games

The World Air Games are about to start in Turin, Italy. This from Brian Spreckley (fresh from Ocana, Spain where the British Overseas Nationals had just been completed, with Gillian Spreckley winning the last day)

"To all Gliding media, association and club contacts.

The World Air Games Glider racing starts next Sunday, to help all our
gliding friends enjoy the action please can you distribute and display
the message below as widely as possible.
Thanks for your help.
Brian

/One week – Ten Sports – Unlimited Adrenaline/ - The World Air Games is
the world's biggest gathering of air sports.
http://www.worldairgames.org > Some three hundred athletes from forty
one countries and all five continents meet for one week of competition
to determine the World Air Games Champions in ten different air sports.
Some of Glidings top pilots will be battling it out in Grand Prix style
racing starting on June 7th culminating in a final between the top six
pilots on Saturday the 13th .
Races should start around 14.00 CET and you can follow all the action in
real time at http://www.wag2009.com/eng/video/index.htm

For more information about all the events check out.
www.worldairgames.org/2009/media-marketing

To see who is competing go to www.worldairgames.org/2009/athletes

Brian Spreckley"