Cold does not mean no thermals!!! The predicted low cloud should be no problem. Also interesting is what should be southerly wave on Sunday. Saturday should have Diamonds to offer!!!!
Saturday
Surface wind - WSW20, 5000ft WSW30, 10000ft SW60, 15000ft SW 70, 20000ft WSW 80Medium strong surface turbulence, and light from 7000ft - 10000ftStrong inversion above 7000ftWindshear is 15ms/4-kmWave from 8200ft to 30000ft 2.5m/sCloud Surface to 7000ft 1 - 5/8Max 13.6 Dewpoint 8.8 Trigger 13.5Expect .7 ms - 1.2 ms to 5000ft
Sunday
Surface wind - S 10, 5000ft S10, 10000ft S40, 15000ft S30,20000ft S40Shear is low at 8ms/4km and only light CAT surface and again at 5 - 7000ftWave from 10000ft upwards (not often that we have southerly wave!!!)Cloud 1-3/8 from 2500 - 5000ftMax 13.8 Dewpoint 7.1 Trigger 13.3Expect 0.8 ms - 1.3 ms to ft 5300ft.
Flight 447
I did a RAOB analysis of the model soundings around the time and place of disappearance and these soundings show nothing out of the ordinary - only low category storms (not even multi of supercells), no or little windshear, no or little CAT or HIGH CAT, and NO lightning. This accord with Tim Vasquez' far more detailed analysis. Puzzling! It looks like a midair or in flight disintegration.
EY
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