Friday 6 February 2009

the Gauntlet forecast

For tomorrow's monthly club contest: the weather forecast:

the gauntlet prediction Saturday has a high dewpoint, with a northerly upper flow and plenty of cloud - quite a change to the weather we have been having. Surface wind - SE 10, 5000ft N 10,10000ft N 30, 15000ft N 40, 20000ft N30 [Martin knows where to go in the Northerlies
Cloud 3 - 5/8 from 9000ft to 38 000f, with 5/8 consentrated from 11000 to 20000ft [the skies are dark!!] with a prediction for lightning at 12 - 15 000ft and hail!!! with the possibility for ordinary cells, but the dry microburst potential is low (too moist for strong convective gusts) (i now have a clever dry microburst potential predictor in the beta version 6 of raob. No precipitation is predicted by raob, but NOAA shows some!! This is probable with the high surface dewpoint (17C)
Max 29.5C Dewpoint 15.9C Trigger 31.3C Expect little lift to 3200ft (there is a low level inversion

Sunday looks like a more classic W - NW blue day (with clouds probable on the front ridge - which will be working very well - saddle up for a nice 800k plus flight - and get going early, it may blow out)
Surface wind - W10, 5000ft WNW 30, 10000ft WNW 50, 15000ft W 60, 20000ft W 60
Wind shear is lowish 10ms per 4km and Dry microburst is low
Wave [there is wave, but the beta version will not show it :(
Cloud BLUE
Max 31.2 Dewpoint 13.4 Trigger 29Expect 2.5 ms - 3.5 ms to 10000ft
So - at the moment not so good for tomorrow, but SUPER for Sunday (one of those saloon of last chance opportunities for a 1000 late in the season)
EY

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