Le weekend 26 September 2009

It is supposed to be spring, but the fronts are hammering us, so up into the wave it will be, at least on Saturday, and perhaps also Sunday.
Saturday
Anabatic warm front, 237km N, moving 20kp Southwards,vertical motion 220m/hr, rain in 2.3 hrs (ie at 16h20 local)
Surface wind - NW20, 5000ft NW40, 10000ft WNW80, 15000ft WNW 110, 20000ft WNW 120
Windshear is 22ms/4km (on the high side) with a low CAT at 6500 - 16000ft
Wave from 8300 ft to 27800f (contactable much lower in the BreedeRiver Valley), all at 3.1ms!!!!
Cloud 3-5/8 from 10 000 - 22000ft
Max 18.5C Dewpoint 7.5C Trigger 18.3C
Expect 0.7 ms - 1.1 ms to 4800ft
Boundary layer energy at 20J/kg
Sunday
Swinging south, postfrontal and rising pressure
Anabatic cold front, moving 20kph to the N, 139km to the North, vertical motion 109m/hr, rain behind the front.
Surface wind - S 40, 5000ft S 20, 10000ft W 60, 15000ft WNW 150, 20000ft WNW 170
Strong surface Cat and Medium CAT from 5000ft - 17000ft
Windshear is high at 35ms/4km
Rain is predictedWave from 8300ft to 14000ft at 3.8ms
Cloud 5 - 8/8 from the 2000 - 5000ft and 3/8 from 22 - 25 000ft
Max 10.1 Dewpoint 7.8 Trigger 11.5
Expect 0.2 ms - 0.4 ms to 3000ft
Boundary layer energy 0 j/kg

EY

le weekend 19 September

An ideal wind direction and sounding for the weekend, but it is perhaps not hot enough yet, and the wind a wee bit too lite, but i think we can put in some good flights this weekend

Saturday
Surface wind - SW 10, 5000ft W light, 10000ft W 30, 15000ft W 50, 20000ft W 60
Windshear low at 10ms/4km
Wave from 10000ft upwards (with the caveat that the wave is normally lower and contactable in the Breede River Valley)
Cloud bleu
Max 19.5 Dewpoint 6.5 Trigger 18.1
Expect 1.1 ms - 1.5 ms to 5800 ft
Boundary layer energy 57 J/kg

Sunday
Surface wind - 10Sw, 5000ft NW 10, 10000ft W 30, 15000ft W 50, 20000ft W 60
windshear 10ms/4km
Wave - again predicted from 10000ft (but see above)
Cloud 8/8 at 30000ft
Max 21.1 Dewpoint 6.5 Trigger 20.4
Expect 0.8 ms - 1.2 ms to 5000 ft
Cloud bleu

EY

Le weekend 12 September

After last weekend there is some of the same ...

the SAWB predictions seem to show a quickly moving front going through with the winds NE Saturday morning swing quickly through to SW by Sunday afternoon, but NOAA is slightly different

So keep a heads up as the weekend approaches

Saturday
Surface wind - WNW 20, 5000ft NW 40, 10000ft NW 70, 15000ft WNW 80,20000ft W 110
Mild turbulence at all levels, wind shear is moderate at 18ms/4km
No frontal indication in the sounding
Wave at 14000 and 31000ft
Cloud Highlevel 5/8
Max 23.1 (well below the SAWB prediction of 28) Dewpoint 4.6 Trigger 23.1 (YES)Expect 0.6 ms - 0.9 ms to 3 500ft
Cloud BLUE
Boundary layer energy 13J/kg
SundayDifferent to the SAWB strong NW!!!
Surface wind - 30NW, 5000ft NW 50, 10000ft WNW 60, 15000ft WNW 90,20000ft WNW 150 (200 at 27K)
Strong surface turbulence in a thick layer (to 2000ft)
Windshear still only 18ms/4km
Wave 9900ft at 2.6ms, 18000ft at 5ms, 21000ft at 1.7ms
Cloud 3 - 5/8 from 2000ft to 9000ft
Katabatic warm front, quasi stationary, 614km to the North, vertical motion -232m/hr
The frontal layer is at 15 - 19000ft on the sounding
Max 13C, Dewpoint 9.6 Trigger 14.6 (!!!!!)
Expect very little to 3000ft
Boundary layer energy 3J/kg

EY

The Taurus in full flight - click here for the video

This is a video made by Adriaan of the flight i had with Martin Gruenert in the Taurus on Sunday, 6 September. Though i had forecast NIL wave, we, in fact, had 5.3m/s at one stage in the lee of Mostertskop. The trace is at http://www3.onlinecontest.org/olc-2.0/gliding/flightinfo.html?dsId=1075566
Thank you Martin for inviting me, and Adriaan for the video footage.
EY

Le Weekend - 5 September

It is getting to be time to look at longer distances ;-)
The forecast looks like this -
Saturday
A nice inversion at 5000ft with a northerly wind, going NW above the inversion with a cold frontal layer at 10 - 12000ft
If you can get through the inversion (which always is much lower in Breede River valley) and connect the wave, then its "game on"
Surface wind - N 10, 5000ft N 20, 10000ft,NW 60 15000ft,NW 100, 20000ft NW 120
Mild surface turbulence and from 3800ft upwards to 15000ft
Shear is high at 25ms/4km
Wave 3.4ms at 8500ft, 3.2ms 10300, 4.9ms at 27000ft
Cloud 8/8 from 25000ft upwards
Katabatic cold front, speed 10kph ENE 128km to the ENE vertical motion -1560m/hour
Max 20.4 Dewpoint 6.7 Trigger 20.2
Expect .7 ms - 1.0 ms to 4500ft
Boundary layer energy 24J/kg

Sunday - NO wave. Strong winds (and probable blow-out) The prediction is for 14h00, but the winds continue to strenghten into the evening.
Surface wind - 30NW, 5000ft 50NW, 10000ft 120NW, 15000ft 130nw, 20000ft 140NW
Maximum surface Turbulence!!!
Strong turbulence at 6000 - 8000ftWinds shear strong at 27ms/4km
Katabatic cold front, quasi-stationary, 80km to the NNE, vertical motion -428m/hour
Wave NIL !!!
Cloud 5/8 from 27000ft
Max 19.1 Dewpoint 6.5 Trigger 18.3
Expect 0.9 ms - 1.2 ms to ft
Boundary layer energy at 36J/kg

Pasella SABC 2

It is not often that gliding makes it onto SA National tv and tonite we a the Cape Gliding Club do ;-)
So (if you are in South Africa) watch Pasella, SABC 2 19h30 tonite (local time)
EY