Friday 4 September 2009

Le Weekend - 5 September

It is getting to be time to look at longer distances ;-)
The forecast looks like this -
Saturday
A nice inversion at 5000ft with a northerly wind, going NW above the inversion with a cold frontal layer at 10 - 12000ft
If you can get through the inversion (which always is much lower in Breede River valley) and connect the wave, then its "game on"
Surface wind - N 10, 5000ft N 20, 10000ft,NW 60 15000ft,NW 100, 20000ft NW 120
Mild surface turbulence and from 3800ft upwards to 15000ft
Shear is high at 25ms/4km
Wave 3.4ms at 8500ft, 3.2ms 10300, 4.9ms at 27000ft
Cloud 8/8 from 25000ft upwards
Katabatic cold front, speed 10kph ENE 128km to the ENE vertical motion -1560m/hour
Max 20.4 Dewpoint 6.7 Trigger 20.2
Expect .7 ms - 1.0 ms to 4500ft
Boundary layer energy 24J/kg

Sunday - NO wave. Strong winds (and probable blow-out) The prediction is for 14h00, but the winds continue to strenghten into the evening.
Surface wind - 30NW, 5000ft 50NW, 10000ft 120NW, 15000ft 130nw, 20000ft 140NW
Maximum surface Turbulence!!!
Strong turbulence at 6000 - 8000ftWinds shear strong at 27ms/4km
Katabatic cold front, quasi-stationary, 80km to the NNE, vertical motion -428m/hour
Wave NIL !!!
Cloud 5/8 from 27000ft
Max 19.1 Dewpoint 6.5 Trigger 18.3
Expect 0.9 ms - 1.2 ms to ft
Boundary layer energy at 36J/kg

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