Not quite ...

... the weekend weather has not quite turned out as predicted, but here are some pics

on the way home from work, a lenticular above Devil's Peak

Saturday evening lennies over Matroosberg

and a (spectacular) sunset from Du Toits Kloof pass

le weekend FIFA 2010

Saturday is going to be hot, but a lot like last Friday - with thermals far apart, but strong and to great heights
Sunday as a real super classic ridge day, but as yet I (and I assume many others) do not have their personal security clearances for flying - thanks to FIFA 2010)
Saturday
Surface wind - W 10, 5000ft WNW 20, 10000ft NW 30, 15000ft NW 50, 20000ft NW 60
Windshear is 10ms/4km With some strong gusts (exceeding 30kts!!!)
But only light surface CAT is indicated
Wave from 10 000ft upwards
Cloud BLEU
Max 34.2 Dewpoint 3.3 Trigger 32.2
Expect 2.0 ms - 2.5 ms to 8600ft
T-2 at 5000ft
Boundary layer energy 104 J/kg
IF we get to the predicted 37C
THEN Expect 2.7ms - 3.2ms to 10 500ft
339J/kg
Sunday
(if cleared by FIFA) THE DAY OF DAYS
Surface wind - SW 20, 5000ft SW 20, 10000ft W 40, 15000ft W 80, 20000ft W 100
Wave from 10 000ft upwards
Cloud BLEU
Max 25.2 Dewpoint 9.9 Trigger 22.4Expect 1.5 ms - 1.9 ms to 7 000 ft
T - 2 to 6000ft!!!!123 J/kg

Soaring flight 20 November to Clanwilliam Dam - Flying - Spot

Soaring flight 20 November to Clanwilliam Dam - Flying - Spot

The Wasserkuppe comes to Worcester

The prediction for Friday was not too far out - it turned out to be a light NE, giving good climbs (sometimes 4m/s to 10 000ft) but the thermals were far apart (but when you are high it is not too bad ;-)

I flew in the back seat with the CFI of the Wasserkuppe, Harald Joerges in Hubert's DG500 (thanks to Rudi and Hubert). The flight is on OLC (logger problem, which does not show the low save close to the airfield, courtesy of Harald - who did all the flying, or that we did well in excess of 400km).

Here are some pics taken high over the unlandable terrain of the Groot Winterhoek mountains.

Going north, Citrusdal ahead ...

Looking back South, not often that we see it from this perspective ...

Climbing at 4m/s plus, looking down at the Dasklip PG launchsite

The sun sets (a picture from the Saturday)

Taken from Du Toitskloof pass on the way home ...

the lower cloud will bring some fresh air for Sunday's flying (when Mike Young will be flying in the Taurus with Martin Gruenert, thanks Martin).

EY

Le weekend 21 November 2009

This is a forecast which includes tomorrow, Friday the 20th.
Temps are up and we are, at long last, seeing T-2 on the soundings, which holds good promise for soaring conditions.

Friday
Surface wind - WNW 10, 5000ft NW 20, 10000ft NWN 30, 15000ft NWN 30, 20000ft WNW 20
Windshear is unusual at 5ms/4km, but a high surface Cat is predicted.
Wave only from 16 000ft upwards
Cloud BLeu
Max 31.6 Dewpoint 6 Trigger 29.6
Expect 2.2 ms - 2. 7 ms to 9 000 ft
T-2 to 5000ft
Boundary layer energy 121 J/kg

Saturday
Surface wind - W 20, 5000ft WNW 20, 10000ft, NW 60, 15000ft WNW 50, 20000ft WNW 30
Windshear is 9ms/4km and the high surface CAT remains as on Friday
Wave light, but from 6000ft upwards
Cloud Bleu
Max 28.2 Dewpoint 9.8 Trigger 26.4
Expect 1.2 ms - 1.7 ms to 6800 ft
T-2 to 4000ft
Boundary layer energy 77 j/kg

Sunday
Surface wind - S 10, 5000ft E 10, 10000ft NW 30, 15000ft NW 40, 20000ft NW 20
High surface cat remains as in the previous days, with moderate cat from 4500ft upwards
windshear remains moderate for FAWC at 11 ms/4km
Wave from 10 000ft upwards
Cloud blue
Max 26.9 Dewpoint 9.9 Trigger 24.9
Expect 1.0 ms - 1.4 ms to 5200 ft
T-2 to 4000ft
Boundary layer energy 78 J/kg

regards
EY

soaringflight14November - Flying - Spot

soaringflight14November - Flying - Spot

Le weekend - 14 November

The NWester is still blowing (unabated now for 7 days - not often that we see that in November, but when it does happen Bitterwasser and Pokweni suffers, and OLC reveals that) but the sun is peeking out behind Lionshead, and by noon tomorrow the rain should disperse and by Sunday the Cape Doctor will be howling.
The weekend looks like this
Saturday
Surface wind - WSW 20, 5000ft WSW 20, 10000ft W 50, 15000ft W 110, 20000ft WSW 150!!!Strong surface turbulance
Shear is moderate at 18ms/4km
Wave from 10000ft, 12000ft,16000ft at 3m/s (as always expect it much lower in the valley and with the Westerly it should be contactable (and i really want to test my Trig21 mode S transponder ;-)
Cloud 3/8 at 5000ft
Max 17.9C Dewpoint 6.4C Trigger 15.5C
T-2 to 5000ft (we haven't seen that for quite a while)
Expect 1.3 ms - 1.8 ms to 6 800 ft
108 Joule/kg
Sunday
The SE sets in, with a strong inversion at 7500ft and westerlies above that. Sounding shows a katabatic cold front 80km to the NE, Vertical motion -1325m/hr
Surface wind - SE20, 5000ft SE 20, 10000ft W 30, 15000ft WSW 80, 20000ft WSW 110
VERY Strong surface turbulence - WATCH the ridges, also the strong shear conditions at 6800 - 8000ft
Shear is 20ms/4km
Wave - from 10200ft upwards to 27000ft at 2 - 3m/s (but probably out of reach of all but a DG808)
Cloud Bleu
Max 17.7 Dewpoint 6.1 Trigger 16.1 Expect 1.0 ms - 1.4 ms to 5500ft
63 J/kg
EY

Grey as the front moves in

Grim and

Also in the Hex River Valley

And wave

High winds

7 days of NW - le weekend for 7 and 8 November

The forecast is for an extended period of NW - and Rob Kakebeeke may have been right that we should be tending to our equipment this weekend!

Today was the day to be flying, this picture of Table Mountain (whilst i had to source a crimping tool for the transponder antenna - thank you Sarel Oosthuizen - tells the story) What i would not give for a self launcher and an infinite sum of money to fly when the weather is up to it ;-)

The forecast looks like this

Saturday
Katabatic warm front, quasi-stationary, 292km to the NE, vertical motion -30m/hr

the frontal layer is between 5000 and 10000ft

Surface wind - 40Nw, 5000ft 70NW, 10000ft 130NW, 15000ft 150NW, 20000ft 160NW

Wave NIL

Cloud 3 - 5/8 from 20 000ft upwards to 8/8 at 40000ft (where the wind is 210kph NW)

Severe surface turbulence, moderate turbulence 6000 - 10000ft

Shear is 30ms / 4km

Max 22.2C Dewpoint 3.3C Trigger 20.4C

Expect 1.2 ms - 1.8 ms to 62000ft

Boundary layer energy 70 J/kg
Sunday

Katabatic cold front, 266km to the E, moving at 56kph towards the east, vertical motion -1036m/hr

Surface wind - 20NW, 5000ft 40NW, 10000ft NW 60, 15000ft NW 80, 20000ft 110 NW

Wave From 13600ft upwards

Cloud 8/8 from 2000ft - 30000ft (the dry and wet adiabats are closely matched from the surface to 30K)

But it keeps the windshear down to 18ms/4km

Surface turbulence remains severe

No rain on the sounding, but i would expect some

Max 12.6C Dewpoint 9.9C Trigger 13.6

Expect 0.5 ms to 3000 ft

boundary layer energy 2 J/kg

Golfing or Harvarding?

If you look carefully you can see ZS-PYC, a Phoebus parked on the 3rd fairway - the glide to FAWC was a bridge tooo far. I hate to add that i am the back seat of a K7 - we had just released overhead as the Phoebus landed and the P1 in the K7 (Jerry Bedbeder) was climbing away in the only 3m/s thermal of the day which Jac had, no doubt, kicked off in his landing.

A perfect example of the USAF edition of the Harvard, now at our airfield and one hangar away from me.

... and that little tractor completes the picture

with a proud owner, Willy Tshopp, attending the smallest detail.

EY