A rescue mission with a difference

Summer is slowly coming, and we are all looking at the weather. Here is a met forecast with a difference. I hope the mission is successful ...


Date: Fri, Oct 10 2008 12:21 am
From: "Dr Ross Hofmeyr"

The FLYCAST is early today, by virtue of the fact that we have flight operations of our own today and are watching the weather like hawks. Briefly, a member of the Norwegian research team at Troll station, who are our closest 'neighbours' here in Antarctica, was injured a week ago and desperately needs surgery. We are cut off from them by the world's second largest glacier - the Jutulstraumen - and thus unable to assist at the moment with supplies and manpower. A daring rescue attempt has been launched - a jet left Cape Town at 0500 GMT and will try land on the ice at Troll despite the suboptimal weather. If they come all the way here and then can't land, they don't have sufficient endurance to return to SA, so we're all on tenterhooks. SANAE is providing communications and flight following for the aircraft.
We've requested to be allowed to travel overland to Troll in the event that the flight can't make it, to deliver medicines and other supplies, but it's a challenging journey across 300km of mostly uncharted and crevassed terrain with significant risk. So, even while you are enjoying the good weather in the Cape this weekend, hold thumbs for clear skies over Antarctica so that the injured man can be rescued.
If that was the bad news, here is the good: Flying in and around Cape Town looks grand this weekend, and the forecast for the rescheduled Gatskop at Porterville couldn't be much better. Grab your wings and get going, because it's going to be great.
WEEKEND OVERVIEW
A linked high pressure system over the Atlantic and SA interior is moderating the weather conditions and should ensure clear skies for most of the weekend. There is a significant low in the South Atlantic but it looks to be staying down near my end, so expect it to feed into the highs with SW'lies and later SE. However, as the front progresses the wind should back
to SW, promising awesome flying on Sunday (and Monday too, if your name is Nieft).
SPECIAL FOCUS - PORTERVILLE
Well, the Gatskop is on for this weekend, and the weather looks very promising. I give it 100 % for flyability (determined by the chance for a foofie) for the weekend, and expect there to me some reasonable XC. Porterville will escape the stronger winds in the Peninsula and with clear skies promises to be great flying, starting round about... now. The forecast is for light westerlies from late morning, becoming light to moderate (SW12) in the late afternoon today, so if you are heading out for the weekend try to break away a little earlier and get a flight in.
Saturday dawns with the wind lightly over the back, but at 10h43 the first gentle thermals are going to make launching a breeze and by 12h28 it should be easily maintainable. Expect light westerlies becoming stronger SW in the evening - wonderful! In the evening the winds become more variable, and I suspect that returning to the Lodge by air will be feasible if the thermals hold out. Sunday will dawn with light W again, becoming gradually more S
through the day. I expect instructors will be throwing students off from first light and we'll see excellent XC later in the day from the Skygods. Lapse rates are not ideal and there is a likelihood of an inversion (my crystal ball is a bit foggy that far in advance) but if it is weak and dissipates then Citrusdal/Clanwilliam are looking mighty close.
IF YOU'RE NOT GOING AWAY...
...then there are still plenty of great options:
Friday 10 October
Loooooovely light westerly's going SW and clear skies. Time to '...wheel and soar and swing high in the sunlit silence'!
Lion's Head - 90%
Moderate W going SW towards evening. Like Steve Erwin would say: "Whadaa beauuuuuty!" Fly fly fly. TM, Apostles, here we come.
SLP - 88%
W11 at 11h00, going WSW and picking up after lunch. Should be fantastic. Misty Cliffs - 86%
Same patterns as LH and SLP, but staying WSW much longer. May be slightly light (necessitating a longer walk) but will be uncomplicated and beautiful until sunset. Stunning.
Llandudno - 80%
If the westerly element is still predominant, this is the time to get up at LLH and fly the Apostles to La Med. I love these conditions when they happen. Bliss.
Saturday 11 October
At the sea, a more S/SE wind changes the shift from the mountain sites to coastal soaring. Wind strengths will increase with the arrival of the SE.
Betty's Bay - 90%
Moderate SE in the late morning become strong only in the late afternoon (SE24 at 17h00), making the site pleasantly flyable for most of the day.
Hermanus - 78%
Likely very nice from late morning till late afternoon, when it might become fairly strong (SE20).
Wolfgat - 70%
Yep, soaring is for the birds... and us. Forecast is on the light side (SSE19 being the max) but if BB/Hermanus blows out this will be the place to stop on the way home. Afternoon soaring likely to be pleasant.
Sunday 12 October
The SE backs to SW, and more flying ensues. Hooray!
Betty's Bay - 90%
Gosh, what a grand site. SE12->S14->SW17. Take sandwiches and a flask of tea for in-fllight refuelling and you could be up all day long.
SLP - 85%
Working from late morning (SW12-17) for most of the day. Should be thermic, too, so the peaks beckon.
Lion's Head - 80%
Morning only, as it's going to get too strong after lunch. Should be straight up the front at sunrise.
Misty Cliffs - 60%
Strong (SW20) at the risk of blowing out but allowing a lower launch, and watch penetration when high, but this place has a lift band right out to sea and is very laminar in these conditions.
My pick for the weekend? Gatskop, of course. Great kuier combined with great flying... bliss.
Fly safe,
voidhawk.

Martin Gruenert also said Monday was going to be great - wish i could fly ...
EY