Tues 30
Surface wind - SE10, 5000ft NE20, 10000ft NWN30, 15000ft NW40, 20000ft NW 40
Cloud 3/8 drom 30000 -35000ft
Wave from 12300ft and higher at 2.7ms
Possible storm cells inland
Cloud Blue
Max 27 Dewpoint 12.1 Trigger25
Expect 1.1ms - 1.6 ms to 6000ft
Wed 31
Surface wind - SW10, 5000ft NWN 10, 10000ft NW 40, 15000ft NW 60, 20000ft NW 50
Storm cells possible inland
Catabatic cold front 100km to the SSW
Wave 8400ft at 2.3ms, 10300ft at 3.8ms, 21600ft at 0.5ms
Cloud 5/8 cirrus at 21000 - 35000ft
Max 29.3 Dewpoint 10.1 Trigger 28.1
Expect 1.2 ms - 1.6 ms to 6000ft
Cloud blue
Thur 1
Surface wind - W10, 5000ft NW 10, 10000ft NEN 40, 15000ft N 40, 20000ft WNW 20
Wave 8400 1.3ms, 19000 2.7ms
Cloud BLUE
Max 30.2 Dewpoint 11.5 Trigger 28.3
Expect 1.8 ms - 2.3 ms to 8000ft
Cloud BLUE
Fri 2
Surface wind - NW 10, 5000ft NW 20, 10000ft NW 40, 15000ft NW 40, 20000ft NW 50
Wave 8300ft 2.1ms, 10100 1.2ms, 14300 2.0ms, 16500 0.6ms, 19000ft 1.0, 21600 2.2ms
Cloud 3/8 32000ft - 39000ft
Max 26.6 Dewpoint 7.4 Trigger 24.6
Expect 1.1 ms - 1.5 ms to 6000ft
Cloud Nil
Sat 3
Surface wind - NW20, 5000ftNW40, 10000ft NW90, 15000ft NW100, 20000ft NW 140!!!Katabatic cold front 170km to the SSW
Wave 8000ft 4.1ms!!! 16000ft 3.4ms!! 24000ft 2.3ms
Cloud 3/8 4000 - 6500; 3/8 21000 - 39000; 5/8 23000 - 37000ft; 8/8 31000 - 37000ft
Max 18.6 Dewpoint 8.4 Trigger 16.8
Expect ms 1.2 - 1.6 ms to 6400ft
Cloud 3/8 cu/stratucu 5800ft - 6800ft
Sun 4
Surface wind - NW20, 5000ft NW40, 10000ft NW40, 15000ft NW40, 20000ft NW40
Wave from 11000ft up at 1.0ms
Cloud 3/8 4000ft - 9800ft; 5/8 5400ft - 8800ft; 3/8 2900ft - 35000ft; 8/8 32000ft - 35000ft
Max 17.5 Dewpoint 7.7 Trigger 15.8
Expect 1.4 ms - 1.8 ms to 6500ft
Cloud 3/8 from 4400ft - 10000ft; 5/8 from 6500ft - 9000ft
EY
Monday, 29 October 2007
Da-KiLLeR
Just rigged and BRAND NEW, a DG 808 competition, aptly registered as D-KLLR, with its proud owner and onlookers at FAWC. This must be the first NEW glider to arrive at this airfield.
On Saturday it had its first flight as well.... Reinhold, may you have many many 1000km flights!!!
On Saturday it had its first flight as well.... Reinhold, may you have many many 1000km flights!!!
EY
Friday, 26 October 2007
LE WEEKEND - an update(2)
Hi all
Herewith an updated forecast for the next three days . Tomorrow is not as good as forecasted 3 days ago, but it certainly remains a day with great possibilities, BEWARE though that the NOAA maps show an indentation of stable air running well inland (to Beaufort West) to the east of us - I believe that makes tomorrow a firmly front ridge day.
Sat 27
Surface wind - SW10, 5000ft SW10, 10000ft NW30, 15000ft NE50, 20000ft NW80
Wave 8500 1.7, 10400 3.0, 16600 1.0, 19000 2.6
Cloud Blue
Max 26.8 Dewpoint 9 Trigger 25
Expect 1.1 ms - 1.6 ms to 6000 ft
Sun 28
Katabatic cold front, quasi stationary to the south
Hi cloud 3/8 cirrus 25000ft
Surface wind - SE20, 5000ft E20, 10000ftn N40, 15000ft NW60, 20000ft NW 90
Possible cu-nimbs inland
Wave 8400 2.3, 10300 1.3, 14400 3.0, 16700 1.7 19000 2.3
Max 23.6 Dewpoint 13.7 Trigger 23.5
Expect 0.6 ms - 2.0 ms to 4500ft
Cloud (thermic) blue
Monday 29
Surface wind - Se20, 5000ft SE20, 10000ft N10, 15000ft WNW30, 20000ft W40
Wave 16000ft plus
Cloud 3/8 from 2500ft - 8500ft
Max 20.7 Dewpoint 13.7 Trigger 20.9
Expect 0.6 ms - 0.9 ms to 4000ft
Cloud 3/8 from 3000ft - 8500
Tomorrow remains best with a deteriorating influence from a moist (black) south easter.
EY
Herewith an updated forecast for the next three days . Tomorrow is not as good as forecasted 3 days ago, but it certainly remains a day with great possibilities, BEWARE though that the NOAA maps show an indentation of stable air running well inland (to Beaufort West) to the east of us - I believe that makes tomorrow a firmly front ridge day.
Sat 27
Surface wind - SW10, 5000ft SW10, 10000ft NW30, 15000ft NE50, 20000ft NW80
Wave 8500 1.7, 10400 3.0, 16600 1.0, 19000 2.6
Cloud Blue
Max 26.8 Dewpoint 9 Trigger 25
Expect 1.1 ms - 1.6 ms to 6000 ft
Sun 28
Katabatic cold front, quasi stationary to the south
Hi cloud 3/8 cirrus 25000ft
Surface wind - SE20, 5000ft E20, 10000ftn N40, 15000ft NW60, 20000ft NW 90
Possible cu-nimbs inland
Wave 8400 2.3, 10300 1.3, 14400 3.0, 16700 1.7 19000 2.3
Max 23.6 Dewpoint 13.7 Trigger 23.5
Expect 0.6 ms - 2.0 ms to 4500ft
Cloud (thermic) blue
Monday 29
Surface wind - Se20, 5000ft SE20, 10000ft N10, 15000ft WNW30, 20000ft W40
Wave 16000ft plus
Cloud 3/8 from 2500ft - 8500ft
Max 20.7 Dewpoint 13.7 Trigger 20.9
Expect 0.6 ms - 0.9 ms to 4000ft
Cloud 3/8 from 3000ft - 8500
Tomorrow remains best with a deteriorating influence from a moist (black) south easter.
EY
Thursday, 25 October 2007
A new visitor
It is perhaps not a great soaring day, but then, if this is what you fly it probably does not matter ....
A visitor on our ramp this afternoon
EY
A visitor on our ramp this afternoon
EY
Wednesday, 24 October 2007
From Dick - a (somewhat acerbic) response
Many thanks Sven, we really appreciate the effort that you are putting into helping us. However I detect a note of guarded pesimism in your latest forecast. The phrase "has some promise" is causing us some concern. Hitherto the task that you have set yourself based on the forecast, have, shall we say, been a little optimistic. Now you actually produce a qualified forecast, so if we factor in your normal quotient of optimism, this appears to indicate a seriously pesimistic prognosis.
We launched later on today, 16:00hrs, Mark managed to stay airborne for an hour or so in weak wave just on the Worcester side of the Audenberg to Keeromsberg axis maintaining 5000ft.
Cheers,
Dick
We launched later on today, 16:00hrs, Mark managed to stay airborne for an hour or so in weak wave just on the Worcester side of the Audenberg to Keeromsberg axis maintaining 5000ft.
Cheers,
Dick
Well Dick, as you can see not even the blue, predicted for today materialised.
Better luck to morrow, i guess.
EY (still@the desk)
Tuesday, 23 October 2007
NOTHING LIKE BEING WRONG!!!
The weather is really playing ducks and drakes (and showing me up)!!! With the result that Dick and his merry band are not getting the flying they were promised!!!
ANY way, and undeterred i make forecasts for the coming week as follows (keep watching the space for rolling updates) AND do keep posting for OLC - we need the points
Wednesday 24
Surface wind -SE30,5000ft SE30, 10000ftSES30, 15000ft SWS30, 20000ftSW50
Wave above 12000ftCloud - blue
AGAIN AN INVERSION AT 5000ft!!!
Max 19.7C Dewpoint 4.3C Trigger 17.4C
Expect 1.1 ms - 1.5 ms to 6500 ft
Cloud - blue
Thursday 25
Surface wind - E30, 5000ft ENE30, 10000ftNE 30, 15000ft N20, 20000ft NW30
Wave nil
Cloud 3/8 cirrus above 20000ft
Max 25.6 Dewpoint -3.5C!!!
Trigger 24.3
Expect 1.0 ms - 1.5ms to 5200ft
Cloud - blue
Friday 26
Surface wind - NW10, 5000ft N30, 10000ft N30, 15000ft N50, 20000ft NW 50
Wave nil
Caution - Surface turbulence
Cloud Nil, but a real chance of thunderstorms inland
Max 30.8C Dewpoint 10.2C Trigger 28.9C
Expect 1.5 ms - 2.0 ms to 7000ft
Cloud blue
Saturday 27
Surface wind - SW20, 5000ft W10, 10000ft NW 30, 15000ft NW60, 20000ft NW80
Wave 8400ft 2.0ms, 10200ft 1.6ms 12200ft 2.8ms and all the way up!!!
Cloud Blue
Max 25.2 Dewpoint 8.1 Trigger 23.1
Expect 1.2ms - 1.7ms to ft 6800ft
Cloud BLUE
Sunday 28
Quasi stationary katabatic cold front 70km to the Ssw, cloud and percipitation ahead of the front
Surface wind - 10SE, 5000ft 10E, 10000ft NNW10, 15000ft NW 50, 20000ft NW 90
Cloud - HIGH CLOUD 3 - 5/8
Max 25.3 Dewpoint 10.9C Trigger 23.2C
Expect 1.1ms - 1.6 ms to 6000ft
Cloud BLUE
Monday 29
Surface wind - SE20, 5000ft ESE10, 10000ft W10, 15000ft W30, 20000ft W40
Wave above 14000ft
Cloud 3/8 base at 4400ft tops at 5000ft
Max 22 Dewpoint 12.9 Trigger 21.2
Expect 0.8ms - 1.2ms to ft 5000ft
Cloud 3/8 4800ft to 5000ft
Tuesday 30
Ordinary storm cells possilbe on the mountains and inland
Surface wind - SE20, 5000ft E30, 10000ft E10, 15000ft SW10, 20000ft W20
Wave above 19000ft
Cloud 3/8 from 4400 with tops at 5200ft
Max 23 Dewpoint 10.7 Trigger 20.8
Strong inversion at 5000ft
Expect 1.0 ms - 1.4ms to ft 5400ft
Cloud BLUE
Keep a beady eye on Saturday (and Monday)
EY (still @thedesk)
ANY way, and undeterred i make forecasts for the coming week as follows (keep watching the space for rolling updates) AND do keep posting for OLC - we need the points
Wednesday 24
Surface wind -SE30,5000ft SE30, 10000ftSES30, 15000ft SWS30, 20000ftSW50
Wave above 12000ftCloud - blue
AGAIN AN INVERSION AT 5000ft!!!
Max 19.7C Dewpoint 4.3C Trigger 17.4C
Expect 1.1 ms - 1.5 ms to 6500 ft
Cloud - blue
Thursday 25
Surface wind - E30, 5000ft ENE30, 10000ftNE 30, 15000ft N20, 20000ft NW30
Wave nil
Cloud 3/8 cirrus above 20000ft
Max 25.6 Dewpoint -3.5C!!!
Trigger 24.3
Expect 1.0 ms - 1.5ms to 5200ft
Cloud - blue
Friday 26
Surface wind - NW10, 5000ft N30, 10000ft N30, 15000ft N50, 20000ft NW 50
Wave nil
Caution - Surface turbulence
Cloud Nil, but a real chance of thunderstorms inland
Max 30.8C Dewpoint 10.2C Trigger 28.9C
Expect 1.5 ms - 2.0 ms to 7000ft
Cloud blue
Saturday 27
Surface wind - SW20, 5000ft W10, 10000ft NW 30, 15000ft NW60, 20000ft NW80
Wave 8400ft 2.0ms, 10200ft 1.6ms 12200ft 2.8ms and all the way up!!!
Cloud Blue
Max 25.2 Dewpoint 8.1 Trigger 23.1
Expect 1.2ms - 1.7ms to ft 6800ft
Cloud BLUE
Sunday 28
Quasi stationary katabatic cold front 70km to the Ssw, cloud and percipitation ahead of the front
Surface wind - 10SE, 5000ft 10E, 10000ft NNW10, 15000ft NW 50, 20000ft NW 90
Cloud - HIGH CLOUD 3 - 5/8
Max 25.3 Dewpoint 10.9C Trigger 23.2C
Expect 1.1ms - 1.6 ms to 6000ft
Cloud BLUE
Monday 29
Surface wind - SE20, 5000ft ESE10, 10000ft W10, 15000ft W30, 20000ft W40
Wave above 14000ft
Cloud 3/8 base at 4400ft tops at 5000ft
Max 22 Dewpoint 12.9 Trigger 21.2
Expect 0.8ms - 1.2ms to ft 5000ft
Cloud 3/8 4800ft to 5000ft
Tuesday 30
Ordinary storm cells possilbe on the mountains and inland
Surface wind - SE20, 5000ft E30, 10000ft E10, 15000ft SW10, 20000ft W20
Wave above 19000ft
Cloud 3/8 from 4400 with tops at 5200ft
Max 23 Dewpoint 10.7 Trigger 20.8
Strong inversion at 5000ft
Expect 1.0 ms - 1.4ms to ft 5400ft
Cloud BLUE
Keep a beady eye on Saturday (and Monday)
EY (still @thedesk)
TUESDAY
Server problems overnite! So it is only this morning that I had a chance to look at the forecast sounding
Cloud 3/8 low to 6800ft, 5/8 4200-5800
SW20 to 5000ft, SW60 at 10000ft and stronger higher up Wave from 6600ft at 2.3ms Max temp 16.3C, dewpoint 10.8, trigger at 15.9 Cu with bases from 2800ft tops at 6800ft Expect .8 to 1.2ms to 5000ft (I would expect the bases to vary in the valley and rise in the course of the day.
Sven Olivier
Stand by for a longer forecast later this evening
Cloud 3/8 low to 6800ft, 5/8 4200-5800
SW20 to 5000ft, SW60 at 10000ft and stronger higher up Wave from 6600ft at 2.3ms Max temp 16.3C, dewpoint 10.8, trigger at 15.9 Cu with bases from 2800ft tops at 6800ft Expect .8 to 1.2ms to 5000ft (I would expect the bases to vary in the valley and rise in the course of the day.
Sven Olivier
Stand by for a longer forecast later this evening
ROLLING FORECAST
Monday may really turn out to be a good day if the inversion does not drop down as it did today (and yesterday)
Monday 23
A sharp inversion at 6500ft
Some stratus at 4400 - 5000ft
Surface wind W20, W30 at 5000ft WNW 50 at 10000ft, WNW 70 at 15000ft and WNW 60 at 20000ft
Wave from 8300ft at 3.5ms,. through to 24000ft at 1.2
Max temp 22, dewpoint 10, trigger 19.9, expect 1.3 - 2.0ms to 6800ft
all blue
**This day is remarkebly similar to 14 November 2004 when we all did very long flights (5*1000) - on the inversion is more pronounced but it is quite acceptable at 6800ft (it is however about 3 degrees cooler than was 14 [December]2004 - adjusted to early October it is probably the same.**
**Tuesday 24**
The inversion now drops back to 5000ft with 3/8 stratus - cu at 3100 with tops at 5100
Wind Southerly 20 increasing to 30 at 5000ft, 40 at 10000ft, 60 at 15000 [we seldom get southerlies this high] and SW 70 at 20000ft
Wave from 8500ft at 2.5ms 12200ft at 3.3, 16400ft at 2.4
Max 18C, dewpoint 8, trigger at 16.2
expect 0.9 - 1.5ms to 5200ft
**Wednesday 25**
Strong SE, surface 30, ESE40 at 5000ft, SE10 at 10000ft, SW 10 at 15000ft, SW230 at 20000ft
blue
Max 20, dewpoint 1, Trigger 17,5
Expect 1.1 - 1.8ms to 6600ft
It should be quite possible to do 700km on wednesday but expect it to be turbulent and you have to fly the ridges to Vrye's Rant.
How wrong can you be!!!
EY
Monday 23
A sharp inversion at 6500ft
Some stratus at 4400 - 5000ft
Surface wind W20, W30 at 5000ft WNW 50 at 10000ft, WNW 70 at 15000ft and WNW 60 at 20000ft
Wave from 8300ft at 3.5ms,. through to 24000ft at 1.2
Max temp 22, dewpoint 10, trigger 19.9, expect 1.3 - 2.0ms to 6800ft
all blue
**This day is remarkebly similar to 14 November 2004 when we all did very long flights (5*1000) - on the inversion is more pronounced but it is quite acceptable at 6800ft (it is however about 3 degrees cooler than was 14 [December]2004 - adjusted to early October it is probably the same.**
**Tuesday 24**
The inversion now drops back to 5000ft with 3/8 stratus - cu at 3100 with tops at 5100
Wind Southerly 20 increasing to 30 at 5000ft, 40 at 10000ft, 60 at 15000 [we seldom get southerlies this high] and SW 70 at 20000ft
Wave from 8500ft at 2.5ms 12200ft at 3.3, 16400ft at 2.4
Max 18C, dewpoint 8, trigger at 16.2
expect 0.9 - 1.5ms to 5200ft
**Wednesday 25**
Strong SE, surface 30, ESE40 at 5000ft, SE10 at 10000ft, SW 10 at 15000ft, SW230 at 20000ft
blue
Max 20, dewpoint 1, Trigger 17,5
Expect 1.1 - 1.8ms to 6600ft
It should be quite possible to do 700km on wednesday but expect it to be turbulent and you have to fly the ridges to Vrye's Rant.
How wrong can you be!!!
EY
Friday, 19 October 2007
LE WEEKEND - an update
The only constant is change!
For Saturday 20 October
Surface wind NW10, 5000ft NNW20, 10000ft NNW 40, 15000ft NW50, 20000ft NW60
Surface turbulence - THIS INCLUDES ALL SURFACES
Wave at 8500ft at 1.1ms and again at 19200ft at 1.7ms
Max 34!!!! dewpoint 6.9 trigger 32.7!!
Blue
Expect 1.6 -2.0ms to 7200ft
For Sunday 21 October
Surface wind W20, 5000ft WNW20, 10000ft NW40, 15000ft Nw50, 20000ft NW 50
Wave at 10300ft at 2.1ms, 12600ft at 2.6 and 22000ft at 1.7ms
Blue
Max 28.9 dewpoint 8.6, trigger at 27
Expect 1.3 - 1.7ms to 6700ft
For Monday 22 October
Surface wind w10, 5000FT nw20, 10000 ft NW40, 15000ft NW50 and 20000ft NW10!!
Wave
8400ft 2.1ms 10200ft 2.6ms 12200 1.5ms 21600ft 1.2
Blue
Max 27.2, dewpoint 7.8, trigger 25.2
Expect 1.1 - 1.5ms to 6000ft
Monday is turning into the better wave day - i still expect the first three days to be front ridge days. With some cunimbs inland
EY
For Saturday 20 October
Surface wind NW10, 5000ft NNW20, 10000ft NNW 40, 15000ft NW50, 20000ft NW60
Surface turbulence - THIS INCLUDES ALL SURFACES
Wave at 8500ft at 1.1ms and again at 19200ft at 1.7ms
Max 34!!!! dewpoint 6.9 trigger 32.7!!
Blue
Expect 1.6 -2.0ms to 7200ft
For Sunday 21 October
Surface wind W20, 5000ft WNW20, 10000ft NW40, 15000ft Nw50, 20000ft NW 50
Wave at 10300ft at 2.1ms, 12600ft at 2.6 and 22000ft at 1.7ms
Blue
Max 28.9 dewpoint 8.6, trigger at 27
Expect 1.3 - 1.7ms to 6700ft
For Monday 22 October
Surface wind w10, 5000FT nw20, 10000 ft NW40, 15000ft NW50 and 20000ft NW10!!
Wave
8400ft 2.1ms 10200ft 2.6ms 12200 1.5ms 21600ft 1.2
Blue
Max 27.2, dewpoint 7.8, trigger 25.2
Expect 1.1 - 1.5ms to 6000ft
Monday is turning into the better wave day - i still expect the first three days to be front ridge days. With some cunimbs inland
EY
Thursday, 18 October 2007
MET - Soaring Safari's
The SAWB makes it a high to the south of the country for the next week - i see a low sitting of the west coast - so, at least it will be interesting.
The forecasts here made rely in main on a sounding on the ridges to the NE of Worcester airfield (at S33.5 E19.5) at 14h00 local time. All heights are MSL in feet. Winds are given from the surface up in 5000ft increments. The forecasts run through to Wednesday24, with an increasing error probability (they forecasted no bad weather, excessive wind or rain for the just finished Gauteng Regionals) Conversion factors: 1m/s = 0,5knots and 2kph = 1 knot
I would expect the first three days to be front ridge days (ie Renosterhoek - Huguenot Tunnel) and perhaps George on Tuesday. Sunday will be a good wave day.
Saturday 20 October
Surface wind to 5000ft - 10kphNWN; 40 NWN at 10000ft, 60 15000 and 20000ft
Blue, wave, but only above 21000ft.
Max temp 33,5 dewpoint 6,3, trigger at 33,2C
Expect 1,5 to 1,8m/s to 6700ft
CAUTION: Surface turbulence and again above 8500ft
Sunday 21 October
Surface wind 10W, 20WNW at 5000ft, 40 NW at 10000ft, 50 NW at 15000ft; 60WNW at 20000ft
Blue, WAVE: 6700ft 2,3m/s, 8400ft 2,5m/s, 12300ft 2,3m/s, 14800ft, 1,7m/s, 16700ft 1,6m/s, 19000ft 2,0m/s and 21800ft 2,2m/s
AN EXCELLENT WAVE DAY
Max temp 29,6 dewpoint 9,3C trigger 27,8
Expect 1,2 - 1,7m/s to 6600ft
Monday 22 October
Surface wind W10, NW 10 at 5000ft, NW30 10000ft - 15000ft WNW 50 at 20000ft
Blue, wave above 10300ft at 0,7m/s, and higher
Max temp 27,6, dewpoint 8,3, trigger at 25,5
Expect 1,3m/s - 1,8m/s to 6700ft
Tuesday 23 October
Surface wind NW20, NW 30 at 5000ft, NW 40 at 10000ft, NW60 at 15000ft, NW80 at 20000ft
Wave at 8300ft 2,3m/s at 18900ft at 2,6m/s and higher
Blue
Max 26,3m/s, dewpoint 8,0C trigger at 24,8C
Expect 1,2 - 1,6m/s to 6500ft
Wednesday 24 October
Surface wind W20, 5000ft W20, 10000ft NW40, 15000ft NW50, 20000ft NW70
3/8 cu / stratus with bases at 2500ft - tops at 6600ft
Wave above 10000 at 2,5 ms, 16500ft 2,5 m/s 18900ft at 3.1ms, 24400ft at 2.3ms
Thermic blue
Max 23,7C dewpoint 10,6
Expect 1,4 to 1,8ms to 6800ft
This is about as far as i can take it at the moment.
EY
The forecasts here made rely in main on a sounding on the ridges to the NE of Worcester airfield (at S33.5 E19.5) at 14h00 local time. All heights are MSL in feet. Winds are given from the surface up in 5000ft increments. The forecasts run through to Wednesday24, with an increasing error probability (they forecasted no bad weather, excessive wind or rain for the just finished Gauteng Regionals) Conversion factors: 1m/s = 0,5knots and 2kph = 1 knot
I would expect the first three days to be front ridge days (ie Renosterhoek - Huguenot Tunnel) and perhaps George on Tuesday. Sunday will be a good wave day.
Saturday 20 October
Surface wind to 5000ft - 10kphNWN; 40 NWN at 10000ft, 60 15000 and 20000ft
Blue, wave, but only above 21000ft.
Max temp 33,5 dewpoint 6,3, trigger at 33,2C
Expect 1,5 to 1,8m/s to 6700ft
CAUTION: Surface turbulence and again above 8500ft
Sunday 21 October
Surface wind 10W, 20WNW at 5000ft, 40 NW at 10000ft, 50 NW at 15000ft; 60WNW at 20000ft
Blue, WAVE: 6700ft 2,3m/s, 8400ft 2,5m/s, 12300ft 2,3m/s, 14800ft, 1,7m/s, 16700ft 1,6m/s, 19000ft 2,0m/s and 21800ft 2,2m/s
AN EXCELLENT WAVE DAY
Max temp 29,6 dewpoint 9,3C trigger 27,8
Expect 1,2 - 1,7m/s to 6600ft
Monday 22 October
Surface wind W10, NW 10 at 5000ft, NW30 10000ft - 15000ft WNW 50 at 20000ft
Blue, wave above 10300ft at 0,7m/s, and higher
Max temp 27,6, dewpoint 8,3, trigger at 25,5
Expect 1,3m/s - 1,8m/s to 6700ft
Tuesday 23 October
Surface wind NW20, NW 30 at 5000ft, NW 40 at 10000ft, NW60 at 15000ft, NW80 at 20000ft
Wave at 8300ft 2,3m/s at 18900ft at 2,6m/s and higher
Blue
Max 26,3m/s, dewpoint 8,0C trigger at 24,8C
Expect 1,2 - 1,6m/s to 6500ft
Wednesday 24 October
Surface wind W20, 5000ft W20, 10000ft NW40, 15000ft NW50, 20000ft NW70
3/8 cu / stratus with bases at 2500ft - tops at 6600ft
Wave above 10000 at 2,5 ms, 16500ft 2,5 m/s 18900ft at 3.1ms, 24400ft at 2.3ms
Thermic blue
Max 23,7C dewpoint 10,6
Expect 1,4 to 1,8ms to 6800ft
This is about as far as i can take it at the moment.
EY
Wednesday, 17 October 2007
Fw: [CGCdiscuss] Soaring Safaris@ CGC 19/10 - 3/11- jurisdiction &briefings
---- Original message ----
From: Alan O'Regan <alan@oreganfamily.com>
Sent: 17 Oct 2007 05:48 +00:00
To: <cgcdiscuss@lists.zsd.co.za>
Subject: Re: [CGCdiscuss] Soaring Safaris@ CGC 19/10 - 3/11- jurisdiction &briefings
Hi there
In case there is any doubt:
* Dick Bradley is a Camp Director and will enjoy the privileges of a
CFI (with responsibility for Soaring Safaris operation and pilots) while
operating at the CGC
* We expect CGC pilots flying during the week to either have GPLs or
special clearance from Ian Forbes (just like we have done when Dick was not
around).
* Non-GPL CGC pilots could also possibly fly if you can convince an
instructor to take a day off!
The lawyers amongst us will recognise that the CGC pilots flying while Dick
is here are actually still flying as part of the CGC operation (not Soaring
Safari's), and that means that if you need to be asking for permission or
getting clearance for something (or are just seeking clarification), you
should be asking the CGC flying panel or instructors (just like usual).
For those interested in extending their cross-country range, Sven and I will
be doing some briefings this weekend targeted at Soaring Safari's - but you
are more welcome to attend. First briefing will be at 10h00 on Saturday.
The weather is looking a little iffy (Easterly) and I may well repeat the
session I did last year explaining the ridges in 3D using the flights of the
epic 5000km day.
regards
Alan O'Regan
LS8 X32
Mobile: +27 (83) 300-1687
email: mailto:alan@oreganfamily.com <mailto:oreganak@iafrica.com>
There is a fine line between fishing and standing on the shore like an
idiot.
-----Original Message-----
From: cgcdiscuss-bounces@lists.zsd.co.za
[mailto:cgcdiscuss-bounces@lists.zsd.co.za] On Behalf Of Alan O'Regan
Sent: 17 October 2007 06:59 AM
To: cgcdiscuss@lists.zsd.co.za
Subject: [CGCdiscuss] Soaring Safaris @ CGC 19/10 - 3/11
Hi there
For your information, Dick Bradley will be arriving on Friday (first flying
day is Saturday) with an ASH25, Ventus and an LS6, and will be staying until
3 October.
Please try to make them feel welcome, and be sure to make his English
punters feel better after their rugby team struggles unsuccessfully on
Saturday. If you have to rub it in (and massage is one of your skills), try
to be gentle.
Also consider making use of the opportunity to fly while Dick's operation
affords us the opportunity of two weeks full-time operation. Normal club
rates & procedures apply (like the flying list), and you may get your season
of to a good start.
We are hoping that if they enjoy themselves, Soaring Safaris may come for a
longer period next year, please do whatever you can to assist this.
regards
Alan O'Regan
LS8 X32
Mobile: +27 (83) 300-1687
email: mailto:alan@oreganfamily.com <mailto:oreganak@iafrica.com>
Just because the hole is not on your side of the boat, it doesn't mean you
won't sink.
---- Sent using a Sony Ericsson mobile phone
From: Alan O'Regan <alan@oreganfamily.com>
Sent: 17 Oct 2007 05:48 +00:00
To: <cgcdiscuss@lists.zsd.co.za>
Subject: Re: [CGCdiscuss] Soaring Safaris@ CGC 19/10 - 3/11- jurisdiction &briefings
Hi there
In case there is any doubt:
* Dick Bradley is a Camp Director and will enjoy the privileges of a
CFI (with responsibility for Soaring Safaris operation and pilots) while
operating at the CGC
* We expect CGC pilots flying during the week to either have GPLs or
special clearance from Ian Forbes (just like we have done when Dick was not
around).
* Non-GPL CGC pilots could also possibly fly if you can convince an
instructor to take a day off!
The lawyers amongst us will recognise that the CGC pilots flying while Dick
is here are actually still flying as part of the CGC operation (not Soaring
Safari's), and that means that if you need to be asking for permission or
getting clearance for something (or are just seeking clarification), you
should be asking the CGC flying panel or instructors (just like usual).
For those interested in extending their cross-country range, Sven and I will
be doing some briefings this weekend targeted at Soaring Safari's - but you
are more welcome to attend. First briefing will be at 10h00 on Saturday.
The weather is looking a little iffy (Easterly) and I may well repeat the
session I did last year explaining the ridges in 3D using the flights of the
epic 5000km day.
regards
Alan O'Regan
LS8 X32
Mobile: +27 (83) 300-1687
email: mailto:alan@oreganfamily.com <mailto:oreganak@iafrica.com>
There is a fine line between fishing and standing on the shore like an
idiot.
-----Original Message-----
From: cgcdiscuss-bounces@lists.zsd.co.za
[mailto:cgcdiscuss-bounces@lists.zsd.co.za] On Behalf Of Alan O'Regan
Sent: 17 October 2007 06:59 AM
To: cgcdiscuss@lists.zsd.co.za
Subject: [CGCdiscuss] Soaring Safaris @ CGC 19/10 - 3/11
Hi there
For your information, Dick Bradley will be arriving on Friday (first flying
day is Saturday) with an ASH25, Ventus and an LS6, and will be staying until
3 October.
Please try to make them feel welcome, and be sure to make his English
punters feel better after their rugby team struggles unsuccessfully on
Saturday. If you have to rub it in (and massage is one of your skills), try
to be gentle.
Also consider making use of the opportunity to fly while Dick's operation
affords us the opportunity of two weeks full-time operation. Normal club
rates & procedures apply (like the flying list), and you may get your season
of to a good start.
We are hoping that if they enjoy themselves, Soaring Safaris may come for a
longer period next year, please do whatever you can to assist this.
regards
Alan O'Regan
LS8 X32
Mobile: +27 (83) 300-1687
email: mailto:alan@oreganfamily.com <mailto:oreganak@iafrica.com>
Just because the hole is not on your side of the boat, it doesn't mean you
won't sink.
---- Sent using a Sony Ericsson mobile phone
Wednesday, 10 October 2007
Soaring Safari's
Shortly to arrive in our nick of the woods are Dick Bradley and his merry men. The SAWB forecast for the period 16 to 22 October is as follows
The flow of tropical air over the central and eastern interior being maintained druing this week. A cold front will reach the Cape on the 18th and between the 21st and 23rd a further cut-off low will move across the south-western part of the country. Rainfall chances will remain very good over the central and eastern interior during this outlook period. Temperatures seem to be indicated to be normal to above-normal for the Free State and for provinces north of the Vaal river during this period, while temperatures for the Cape Peninsula seem to be likely to be relatively normal (in comparison with typical climatological conditions for the month of October).
It looks like there will be some good post-frontal flying with southerly winds - no doubt mixed up with some good wave flying as the cold front moves in
EY
The flow of tropical air over the central and eastern interior being maintained druing this week. A cold front will reach the Cape on the 18th and between the 21st and 23rd a further cut-off low will move across the south-western part of the country. Rainfall chances will remain very good over the central and eastern interior during this outlook period. Temperatures seem to be indicated to be normal to above-normal for the Free State and for provinces north of the Vaal river during this period, while temperatures for the Cape Peninsula seem to be likely to be relatively normal (in comparison with typical climatological conditions for the month of October).
It looks like there will be some good post-frontal flying with southerly winds - no doubt mixed up with some good wave flying as the cold front moves in
EY
Sunday, 7 October 2007
Sunset, Sunday
The wind is swinging south and apparently it is bitterly cold at the airfield, snow is predicted!!
A webcam photo
EY (@thedesk)
A webcam photo
EY (@thedesk)
Saturday, 6 October 2007
CLUB CONTEST
Back from the Gauteng regionals I am deskbound and the closest i can get to the monthly club contest is to do the Thursday nite prediction, below and then to watch the weather unfold on the Cam - well i hope they do get some diamond heights and long distances in!! (and that i won't be eating my hat)
The thursday nite prediction
"With the Gauntlet due on Saturday and the final two weeks of OLC approaching it is about time that we have a serious look at the weather
I can't fly in the time that Dick B will be here, but i hope to be able to post forecasts every two days (it will help to keep me of the pills in the asylum)
Saturday
The task setting will be interesting with ridges, thermals and wave working.
The airmass is not so moist (dewpoint 6C) but cool with a max temp of 17 and a trigger of 14.8C, so expect some cloud at lower than normal levels - but thermic cu should have bases from 4500 topping 7000ft
The winds are ideal, westerly to Renosterhoek and Southwesterly to George
At 14h00 they should be surface 20WSW, 30W at 5000, 50W at 10000ft, 60W at 15000ft and 70W at 20000ft
The wave forecast is however, STUNNING with wave predicted at 11h00 from 10000ft to 24000ft experience has taught that in the Worcester valley the wave will be contactable a lot lower!!!
The prediction at 14h00 in any event is wave from 8200ft at 2.7m/s through to 24000ft at 1.7m/s peaking at 3.4m/s at 14000ft
My guess is that if you don't already have a diamond height, now is the time to fill up the bottle, file the flightplan and launch at 10h30
Sunday is more interesting, with a very strong south easter combined with a front to the SW!!! (at least that is what raob says) The SE will be a very black one.
EY
PS if these predictions all come out i will eat a hat (but not the one i fly with)!!!"
must say: "Wish i was there!!"
EY (andbacktothedesk).
The thursday nite prediction
"With the Gauntlet due on Saturday and the final two weeks of OLC approaching it is about time that we have a serious look at the weather
I can't fly in the time that Dick B will be here, but i hope to be able to post forecasts every two days (it will help to keep me of the pills in the asylum)
Saturday
The task setting will be interesting with ridges, thermals and wave working.
The airmass is not so moist (dewpoint 6C) but cool with a max temp of 17 and a trigger of 14.8C, so expect some cloud at lower than normal levels - but thermic cu should have bases from 4500 topping 7000ft
The winds are ideal, westerly to Renosterhoek and Southwesterly to George
At 14h00 they should be surface 20WSW, 30W at 5000, 50W at 10000ft, 60W at 15000ft and 70W at 20000ft
The wave forecast is however, STUNNING with wave predicted at 11h00 from 10000ft to 24000ft experience has taught that in the Worcester valley the wave will be contactable a lot lower!!!
The prediction at 14h00 in any event is wave from 8200ft at 2.7m/s through to 24000ft at 1.7m/s peaking at 3.4m/s at 14000ft
My guess is that if you don't already have a diamond height, now is the time to fill up the bottle, file the flightplan and launch at 10h30
Sunday is more interesting, with a very strong south easter combined with a front to the SW!!! (at least that is what raob says) The SE will be a very black one.
EY
PS if these predictions all come out i will eat a hat (but not the one i fly with)!!!"
must say: "Wish i was there!!"
EY (andbacktothedesk).
Monday, 1 October 2007
Post script
All's well that ends well. Well, it almost did not. Doc pulled a Ben Flewett on the last day in his final glide and ended up doing a direct 09 approach between two sets of hangars (also directly into wind). It appears to have been yet another microburst!!! They are really lethal and it is only the quick thinking of an experienced pilot that saved the day . Well done to Doc for the winning the 15m class.
It was only in the 15M and Open class that we had a contest, and then only because all the pilots had agreed an extension of the contest by one day. It is a pity that the other classses did not get a contest. To go back a moment to my last post where i was sitting in a field 12 km from the second turnpoint.
On day three three pilots made it home: Doc, Mannie and John Coutts. It was a tough day and they really did well!! Just before i landed Mannie was 300m above me, and how he made it home remains a mystery. But thanks to the three of them we had a contest day on Saturday and the chance on Sunday to make it a contest (four days are required).
Day four dawned with mist and low cloud and sounding data which indicated a weaker and tougher day than the day before. It was only the discipline instilled by many contests that made me go through the motions of rigging and filling up. I nearly stopped when i heard a decision would be made at 9h00. At the briefing there was some debate and ultimately the contest director did the Polish thing (there they fly irrespective of anything - a flash back to sterner times we were given to understand) and declared that we would be flying, the task to be handed out on the grid.
There must have been some rebellion in the 18m class, spilling over into the open class: the former did not fly and some of the latter left early (a pity as the day would turn out to be challenging but satisfying).
I was first on the grid, but had the benefit of knowing from PN and KG that the conditions were flyable.
It was an assigned area task, two hours. The moment the gate opened, and with the previous day still fresh in our collective memories, we all set off almost immediately. CE and i took a few extra turns before crossing the startline with the 133, 2T and AG ahead of us. I stuck with John, and man, does he fly well. Going past Ventersdorp we were well ahead of the pack and John nearly beguiled me into running much to far into the first sector (as i suspect he did.) I turned away and aimed for the west side of the Derby sector, running even further west to stay with the cloud. The good run was over and at Koster i had to do some creative flying to stay in the game. It was all good fun on the way home, except for the last 20km (see above).
A big thank you to the Magalies Gliding Club and all its members - it was a really nice contest.
EY
It was only in the 15M and Open class that we had a contest, and then only because all the pilots had agreed an extension of the contest by one day. It is a pity that the other classses did not get a contest. To go back a moment to my last post where i was sitting in a field 12 km from the second turnpoint.
On day three three pilots made it home: Doc, Mannie and John Coutts. It was a tough day and they really did well!! Just before i landed Mannie was 300m above me, and how he made it home remains a mystery. But thanks to the three of them we had a contest day on Saturday and the chance on Sunday to make it a contest (four days are required).
Day four dawned with mist and low cloud and sounding data which indicated a weaker and tougher day than the day before. It was only the discipline instilled by many contests that made me go through the motions of rigging and filling up. I nearly stopped when i heard a decision would be made at 9h00. At the briefing there was some debate and ultimately the contest director did the Polish thing (there they fly irrespective of anything - a flash back to sterner times we were given to understand) and declared that we would be flying, the task to be handed out on the grid.
There must have been some rebellion in the 18m class, spilling over into the open class: the former did not fly and some of the latter left early (a pity as the day would turn out to be challenging but satisfying).
I was first on the grid, but had the benefit of knowing from PN and KG that the conditions were flyable.
It was an assigned area task, two hours. The moment the gate opened, and with the previous day still fresh in our collective memories, we all set off almost immediately. CE and i took a few extra turns before crossing the startline with the 133, 2T and AG ahead of us. I stuck with John, and man, does he fly well. Going past Ventersdorp we were well ahead of the pack and John nearly beguiled me into running much to far into the first sector (as i suspect he did.) I turned away and aimed for the west side of the Derby sector, running even further west to stay with the cloud. The good run was over and at Koster i had to do some creative flying to stay in the game. It was all good fun on the way home, except for the last 20km (see above).
A big thank you to the Magalies Gliding Club and all its members - it was a really nice contest.
EY
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